EVERGREEN, Colo., Aug. 7, 2012 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- On September 16 – 18, the top aviation industry decision-makers will gather in Dallas-Ft.Worth, Texas, USA to explore the new future of global aviation at the Boyd Group International Aviation Forecast Summit.
The views and input from leaders including Gary Kelly, CEO Southwest Airlines, Steven Udvar-Hazy CEO Air Lease Corp, David Neeleman CEO AZUL, Ben Baldanza, CEO, Spirit, Dave Barger CEO JetBlue, Scott Kirby President US Airways, David Cush CEO Virgin America, Dr. Chi Zhihang VP North America Air China, Paul Jacobson, CFO, Delta Air Lines, Chuck Shubert VP Network Planning American Airlines – plus leaders from Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, Bombardier, and ATR, - just for starters – will be discussed at the Summit. The Summit is the event that delivers not only the perspectives of industry leaders, but also independent, focused forecasts of the future.
The Summit covers the trends that will shape aviation strategies. For example, by 2017, the aviation industry as we know it will be fundamentally different. These will be covered at the Summit.
- The growth in air passenger travel will be more dependent on airline capacity decisions than on traditional economic drivers.
- Enplanement growth in the US will settle into annual rates of 2.0% or less.
- Scheduled air service in North America will be consolidated in to at least 100 fewer airports.
- In the US, there will be more "regional gateways" that aggregate passenger traffic from a very wide geographic area, with the emergence of "road hubbing."
- It will be global alliances that will increasingly make the decisions regarding member airline schedules and route systems.
- Fleet decisions will be based on alliance metrics more than those of individual airline members.
- Airlines globally will be facing a clear shortage of pilots, the result of a decade of post 9/11 cuts in compensation and benefits, causing fewer individuals to enter the profession.
- In the Pacific, over 30% of all capacity will be operated by Chinese airlines.
These are just a few of the forecast dynamics that will be outlined and discussed at the 17th Annual Boyd Group International Aviation Forecast Summit.
New Growth Patterns: Slowing Down. With the exception of India and China, airlines across the globe will shift from focus on traffic growth to profit growth, resulting in much slower expansion of capacity and hence, traffic.
In the US, for example, passenger enplanement growth will no longer track with economic indicators, but with the capacity that airlines choose to add, based on internal financial goals. "The forecast data are 'disruptive' to current accepted projections," noted Michael Boyd, Chairman of Boyd Group International. "The raw economics of airline operations now point to a plateau in capacity growth. A two percent annual rate will be considered strong by 2017."
Fleets: 50-Seaters Going. Next: 66-70 Seat RJs . Airline systems will have less "reach" as small units of capacity are retired from fleets. Point: far fewer points served.
"It was at the Boyd Group Fleet Forecast in 2000 that this trend was first predicted," Boyd pointed out. "Back then, it was at variance with all other forecasts – including those of most manufacturers. But today, we have small jet providers – regional airlines – scrambling to find new lines of business as 50-seaters are retired. What our forecast now indicates is that 66-70 seat RJs are next in the retirement line, and much sooner than most sources predict." At the Summit, the Boyd Group Global Fleet Forecast will be presented along with those of Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, and ATR.
Alliances: The New Drivers. In ten years, it will be alliances that will be making the decisions on where airlines put capacity. The alliance brand will be the product that consumers will ultimately purchase. Air service decisions for points such as Buffalo, Wuhan, Cairo, and Bogota will be affected by strategies determined by alliance policies.
Register Now. The Summit is where aviation leaders gather. We invite you to be there, too. More details and on-line registration can be accessed at www.AviationForecastSummit.com.
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