SHREVEPORT, La., Dec. 10, 2004 (PRIMEZONE) -- Stock-Letter-Daily.Com (http://www.stock-letter-daily.com -- an affiliate site of StockPickReport, the web's only non-mainstream stock rating service), rates Citigroup Inc., Level 3 Communications, NVIDIA Corporation, Research In Motion Ltd.
STOCKPICKREPORT RATINGS:
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) -- BUY
http://www.stock-letter-daily.com/rating.asp?format=single&ticker=C
Level 3 Communications (Nasdaq:LVLT) -- SELL
http://www.stock-letter-daily.com/rating.asp?format=single&ticker=LVLT
NVIDIA Corporation (Nasdaq:NVDA) -- STRONG SELL
http://www.stock-letter-daily.com/rating.asp?format=single&ticker=NVDA
Research In Motion Ltd (Nasdaq:RIMM) -- SELL
http://www.stock-letter-daily.com/rating.asp?format=single&ticker=RIMM
STOCK COMMENTARY:
Friday, December 10, 2004
StockPickReport Commentary
What's "Up" With the Market?
The first thing we want to be "on record" as saying is this: The U.S. stock markets are over-valued, over-extended, and over-bought.
Let's talk about "news." I mean, it's "news" that folks clamor for each day, right? If it's at Yahoo, CBS Marketwatch, or heard on CNBC, it's important, right?
Here is some "news" you can get at any major financial "news" outlet: Gold's drop Tuesday was followed by two straight days of consolidation. Oil prices have moved higher again after Tuesday's drop. The dollars "rebound" of Tuesday was followed by two days of consolidation -- just like gold did.
Now, for the market to rise against rising oil prices, consolidating gold prices, and the consolidation of the dollar is, well, pure speculation. Our hypothesis is that one of two things is about to happen.
Scenario number one is that oil prices will drop, gold prices will drop, and the dollar will rise. Or, scenario number two is that oil prices will rise, gold prices will rise, and the dollar will remain weak. If scenario number one happens, the market will go up. If scenario number two happens, the market will go down.
What concerns us is not the "basic economic" theories you just read - it's not "rocket science". No, what concerns us is that if the market has risen all year long against rising oil, and rising gold, and falling dollar prices, what in the world will happen if one of the two scenarios we paint takes place?
If you lift oil prices, gold, and a falling dollar off this market, will the market just SKYROCKET??? Is there really any reason to think that would be justified? The point being, that if the market can rise against all the bad news of the year 2004 (and we did not even bring up employment news, the U.S. involvement in Iraq, or higher than expected wholesale prices), what would happen if we got some good news? Before you answer that with, "Well, duh. The market will scream higher!", consider that the old axiom of "buy the rumor, sell the news" has not been more appropriate since, well...
...Spring, 2000.
Last Thursday and Friday, we were adamant that the market was overbought and due to drop. Some of you emailed us to applaud our correct call as everything sort of fell apart earlier this week. You know, we basically only made "short" picks for all but our Penny Stock service, too - all of which dropped.
But, that's not the drop we were talking about. We think there is more ahead.
The bottomline issue to us is the plain trendline formed since August on the S&P. That trendline DID represent the TOP of a trading channel. It NOW represents the BOTTOM of the recent channel since early November. Notice, too, that MACD, and RSI continue to indicate overbought conditions exist.
So, what in the world should you do about all this? Here's what we would do: If the S&P cannot close above 1174, we'd cut our losses.
By the way, if you are new to StockPickReport, you'll find that we are neither "positive" nor "negative" on the market. We are simply doing the best job we can of serving you with unfiltered, unbiased, truth (as we see it). When we see signs that the market is in a stronger position, you will be shocked at how positive our comments will seem versus the onslaught of "doom and gloom" from "mainstream wallstreet". Remember, if you have any questions or comments, please email Don Harrold, don@stockpickreport.com.
For More Commentary Go Here: http://www.stock-letter-daily.com/index.htm
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StockPickReport.Com ranks stocks with technical analysis. These ratings do not indicate a "long term" view. These ratings reflect an opinion for the short term. These ratings may change based on market conditions.
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If the links to our ratings above do not work, please use these:
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) -- BUY http://www.stockpickreport.com/rating.php?sym=C Level 3 Communications (Nasdaq:LVLT) -- SELL http://www.stockpickreport.com/rating.php?sym=LVLT NVIDIA Corporation (Nasdaq:NVDA) -- STRONG SELL http://www.stockpickreport.com/rating.php?sym=NVDA Research In Motion Ltd (Nasdaq:RIMM) -- SELL http://www.stockpickreport.com/rating.php?sym=RIMM