SHREVEPORT, La., March 10, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- StockPickReport.Com (IARD #119079, http://www.stockpickreport.com - the web's only non-mainstream stock rating service), rates Applied Materials, Sonus Networks, Aastrom Biosciences Inc., ChevronTexaco Corporation.
STOCKPICKREPORT RATINGS:
Applied Materials (Nasdaq:AMAT) - SELL
http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=AMAT
Sonus Networks (Nasdaq:SONS) - WEAK SELL
http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=SONS
Aastrom Biosciences Inc. (Nasdaq:ASTM) - SELL
http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=ASTM
ChevronTexaco Corporation (NYSE:CVX) - SELL
http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=CVX
Thursday, March 10, 2005 StockPickReport Commentary
Oil touched its record high today in the mid $55/barrel mark. Take a look at this headline from today: "Stocks Slip on Soaring Oil Prices, Pressure by Higher Yields on Long-Dated Treasuries"
What does the latter mean? It means the price of your bonds is going down! That's no good if you already own these bonds. You could have sold them for a profit. That's why we recommended several weeks ago and we still recommend the "trade of the year" which is to sell your long bonds and buy gold under "GLD".
You'd already be up 5% on this simple trade.
Suncor (NYSE:SU), our favorite oil stock, is at yet another high today. ExxonMobil had revenues in 2004 of $298 billion! Amazing! They also have $25 billion of free cash flow on their balance sheet. So, expect them to increase their dividend or to buy back shares.
These are our three favorite quotes on the markets:
1. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can
stay solvent."
2. "The trend is your friend."
3. "The crowd is right with the trend, and wrong in the end."
One seasoned broker we know said he didn't like the volatility in the market (before the crash of 2000) and was "raising cash". He probably lost most of his clients just as the crash came. Another broker was buying oil stocks as the Nasdaq was taking off. I expect he did a bit better, as long as he kept his clients. Another rookie broker who had been there for about three years, was buying internet stocks. He tripled some of clients accounts in a year!
So, who was doing the best job?
ANSWER: THE ROOKIE! Why? He was going with the trend. BUT, HE WAS WRONG IN THE END! He just didn't know when to get out. He bought on the way back down. He had no exit discipline. Psychologically, losses hurt FOUR TIMES as much as gains do. You make a thousand dollars on a trade and you feel pretty good. You lose a thousand and you're moping around all day. It's true. That's how our brains work. Should the internet stocks have been going up so much? Of course not. Why should they? No reason. Should you have bought them? You bet. There's no reason figuring out the "why". Just go with the trend. BUT, make sure you're right in the end!
The trend is oil. The trend is gold. For oil we like SU, and for gold, we like the metal, "GLD". Or, let's say you want to play the oil sector, but you want some type of cushion in the trade. You can invest in Alberta Energy Trusts that have yields of over 10%. Take a look at PWI and PGH.
What always amazes me us is that there are thousands of brokers and they always say what great research they have, so why aren't you hearing any of this from your brokers? Why didn't they clue in on the trade of the year? It was so obvious to us it was staring us in the face.
The reason? They're lazy. They're salesmen. They just want to shelve your account. Or maybe, they just don't know what to do and they hope you won't call them. When you do, they'll tell you to stay the course. When you call with a good idea, they'll talk you out of it. Sure, there are some good brokers, I suppose. But there sure aren't enough.
If you have a broker, ask him or her about the recommendations in this newsletter.
If you have questions or comments, please email don@stockpickreport.com.
For More Commentary Go Here: http://www.stockpickreport.com
All commentary written by StockPickReport staff or contracted writers and analysts.
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If the links to our ratings above do not work, please use these:
Applied Materials (Nasdaq:AMAT) - SELL
http://www.stockcommentary.com/AMAT-Stock-News.htm
Sonus Networks (Nasdaq:SONS) - WEAK SELL
http://www.stockcommentary.com/SONS-Stock-News.htm
Aastrom Biosciences Inc. (Nasdaq:ASTM) - SELL
http://www.stockcommentary.com/ASTM-Stock-News.htm
ChevronTexaco Corporation (NYSE:CVX) - SELL