SHREVEPORT, La., March 28, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- The following is an investment opinion issued by StockPickReport:
StockPickReport.Com (IARD #119079, http://www.stockpickreport.com -- the web's only non-mainstream stock rating service), rates American International Group Inc., Charter Communications, Siebel Systems Inc. and American Express Company.
STOCKPICKREPORT RATINGS:
American International Group Inc. (NYSE:AIG) -- WEAK SELL http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=AIG Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR) -- BUY http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=CHTR Siebel Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:SEBL) -- SELL http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=SEBL American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) -- WEAK SELL http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=AXP Monday, March 28, 2005 StockPickReport Commentary 18% is not 40%
Neil Batho, Guest Columnist
Trading can be compared a lot to athletics. Even the best athletes need a break sometimes. It's not uncommon to see the best quarterbacks, pitchers, and hockey goalies get pulled from the game by their coaches. Often, they will ask the coach to pull them. If your trading is not going well, take a break. Often it only takes a day to regroup.
Let's take a look at how we see the markets. Remember back in 2000? The "analysts" were always saying the market should go up because, after all, profits were healthy. Well, that wouldn't have helped your portfolio. Even Cisco's profits are greater today than in 2000 and the stock is still down over 70%. I just happened to catch Jim Cramer on CNBC the other day on his new show, where he paces around and screams at the camera. He was saying how GE and Northrop Grumman's increased earnings were showing a robust economy. BUT.... don't we know that we are trading the MARKET? Not the ECONOMY. To make money one needs to buy at the bottom of the market, not the top of the economy. HA! What do you think about that one Mr. Cramer?
So, please dear reader, don't ever trade based on the economy. Trade based on the market. Looking at the market, overall stocks are 18% oversold using our methodology. This is a statistical analysis on a 10 week moving average. Once stocks reach 40% oversold, they can rebound sharply. We can catch trading moves in these rallies, but it's not a sign to jump back in for the long haul, since this is only one indicator. Every other indicator shows the bears firmly in control.
So, is it time to regroup for yourself? Probably. I am guessing that even if you sat in cash and didn't look at the market for a week, then came back to this column next week, you would see little changed overall in the market. In fact, you could probably avoid a very bad trading week.
What really troubles me is all of the inflation fears these days. We wrote a few days ago that Alan Greenspan doesn't know what he is doing and we stand by that. He is going to wreck this market once and for all before he retires we think. The best inflation hedge is gold, under "GLD". But even gold hasn't been rallying. There is very strong support at $410, however, so this is a great place to park your money still.
Inflation fears have raised the ante at the poker table, and we are inclined to sit this one out. For at least a hand or two. Should we see a potential for a short-term rally, as often happens, we will let you know, otherwise, protect your capital. You're going to need it when a bottom comes.
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If the links to our ratings above do not work, please use these:
American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG) -- WEAK SELL http://www.stockmonthly.com/AIG-Stock-Research.php Charter Communications (Nasdaq:CHTR) -- BUY http://www.stockmonthly.com/CHTR-Stock-Research.php Siebel Systems Inc. (Nasdaq:SEBL) -- SELL http://www.stockmonthly.com/SEBL-Stock-Research.php American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) -- WEAK SELL http://www.stockmonthly.com/AXP-Stock-Research.php