BERLIN, June 2, 2006 (PRIMEZONE) -- The USA's status as a world power will be substantially weakened in the next 15 years. This according to the results of a representative international survey by the German Bertelsmann Stiftung. According to this study, only 57% of over 10,000 people surveyed worldwide still see the USA as a world power in the year 2020. Today, 81% of people worldwide reckon the USA is a world power, followed by China with 45%, Japan with 37%, Great Britain with 33%, the EU with 32% and Russia with 27%. However, expectations shift considerably for the year 2020. Then, 55% of those surveyed expect China to be a world power, followed by Japan with 32%, the EU with 30%, Russia with 27% and India with 24%.
In addition to China, which will increase its importance by 10 percentage points, the significance of India will rise by 12 percent, where as the U.S. and Great Britain go down by 11 percentage points. The status of the EU and UN basically remains unchanged. Self-confidence and expectations of the future are particularly phenomenal in China and India. 76% of the Indian population see their country far ahead of the USA and China in the year 2020. 71% of people in China see their country as a world power -- 30% more than the USA. Only 13% of Chinese see their contender India as a global player.
When asked about the required characteristics for a world power, most of the interviewees listed political stability, economic strength, as well as effective education and research. For the majority, military strength is becoming less important as a power factor and is viewed as important by only 20% of the respondents. In the USA, 33% still believe in the importance of military strength. The most important challenges for great powers are considered to be international terrorism, poverty, and climate change.
However, the majority of the population in the most important countries around the world apparently does not expect a common world agenda in the future. In fact, they assume that a multi-polar world order without a common organization will develop. Political researchers at the Bertelsmann Stiftung thus conclude from the opinion poll that there could be a return to the respective national strength of each country and to the disastrous, classic great power politics of the 19th century, which is also indicated by the fact that the strength and importance of the interviewee's own country are estimated as higher in almost all countries, than from interviewees from all other countries. This is particularly distinct in interviewees from India, Russia, Great Britain, and Brazil. And although many people desire a greater role for the UN, it only comes in seventh place as a future "ordering power."
Professor Werner Weidenfeld, member of the board of directors for the Bertelsmann Stiftung states, "People believe the current supremacy of the USA will vanish in the future, but also do not expect a harmonious balance of world powers that is, for example, moderated by the UN. They place more emphasis on their own strength in global competition and each wants stability and peace to play a more decisive role in their own country. If this perspective and expectation for politics holds sway worldwide, there is a danger of a nationalistic race between the current and future world powers, where everyone will be a loser."
Over 10,000 people were surveyed worldwide by the Gallup/TNS-EMNID opinion research institutes on the role and function of world powers today and in the year 2020 for this study by the Bertelsmann Stiftung. The survey was carried out in the USA, Russia, Brazil, China, India, Japan, Germany, France, and Great Britain.
All details on the international survey can be downloaded from the Internet at: www.bertelsmann-foundation.org/survey