JSC Latvijas Gāze: On tariff changes as of April 1, 2008


On February 27, the Council of the Public Utility Commission resolved that as
of April 1 the previous order of application of heavy fuel oil quotation takes
effect, thus an increase of the natural gas tariffs is expected. The changes
have been made because the global prices of oil and its products, to which the
natural gas price is pegged, are growing rapidly and also because from April
the JSC “Latvijas Gāze” will receive gas directly from the Russian transmission
system and pay the European average price, which is much higher. In the next
few weeks it is also planned to submit a new tariff project, which concerns
tariff changes in the summer of 2008. 

Till April 1 it is possible to apply lower tariffs, as in the autumn of 2007
the JSC “Latvijas Gāze” purchased natural gas reserves at the Inčukalns
Underground Gas Storage Facility for the prices of the previous season, thus on
January 1 the tariffs for the first two consumer groups increased by 13%
(instead of the planned 31%), while for the major consumers they even decreased
by 10-13% (instead of the planned increase by 4-5%). 

As of April 1, the tariffs at heavy fuel oil quotation up to 400 USD/t (in
March - up to 330 USD) will be applied, thus for consumers of groups 3 to 8
(annual consumption over 25 000 m3) there will be an increase by 17-21%. For
the first two consumer groups (annual consumption up to 25 000 m3), including
households, the tariffs will remain unchanged. 

Currently, including February, the average heavy fuel oil quotation of the
previous six months is approximately 460 USD/t, whereas the highest quotation
envisaged by the methods of tariff application is 400 USD/t, which means that
from April 1 thru approval of new tariffs the JSC “Latvijas Gāze” will purchase
natural gas for much higher price than it will be sold in Latvia and therefore
operate with losses. 

In February 2007 the average heavy fuel oil price of the previous six months
was around 260 USD/t, whereas in February 2008 it will be about 460 USD/t
(increase by 75%). The oil price at the beginning of 2007 was approximately 50
USD/barrel, whereas at the beginning of this year the price exceeded 100
USD/barrel for the first time in the history. In December 2007 the oil
exporting countries OPEC announced a decision not to increase the amount of oil
production, which will have no positive impact upon the further development of
the oil price. One should also take into account the growing demand for energy
resources in China and India. 

If the value of oil products falls, the tariffs correspondingly decrease. Such
process went on from July 2006 thru March 2007. Perhaps it was not so
influential for households, for which the tariffs fell by about 3.5%, but for
industrial customers the decrease was noticeable - 8 to 10%. 

Within the next few weeks the JSC “Latvijas Gāze” will prepare a new tariff
project and submit it to the PUC. It is yet unknown what changes of the tariffs
will occur, as the project is not completed and it is difficult to predict the
prices of oil products. However, if there remain high prices of oil and oil
products, the requested tariff increase is likely to reach 50% on average in
comparison to 2007. It should be borne in mind that already now about 80% of
the tariff of one cubic metre of natural gas is its purchase price. 

Commercial Proxy of the JSC “Latvijas Gāze” Vinsents Makaris