EVERGREEN, Colo., March 20, 2008 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- A new forecast concludes that fuel prices have rendered much of the world's current airliner inventory as "economically obsolete" and in need of immediate re-fleeting. The Boyd Group's 2008 - 2017 Global Fleet Demand & Trend Forecast notes that many airliners today -- particularly "regional" jets -- are simply too costly to operate with fuel prices at current levels. "There are no market fundamentals that indicate fuel will drop significantly in the future," the forecast notes. "High crude prices combined with the weak dollar, plus constricted refining and distribution infrastructures, all indicate that the airline industry must plan to adjust their fleets accordingly."
The 2008 - 2017 Global Fleet Demand & Trend Forecast segments the globe into six regions, with year-by-year projections for each of the six major capacity bands of commercial jet airliners, from regional jets to wide-bodies.
-- New Entrant Opportunities. Of the 14,172 new jet airliners
forecast through 2017, 40% will be in the 75 - 125 seat range.
Currently there is only one mainline-cabin platform in this
range, which is the Embraer E-170/195. This indicates potential
for market entry of new manufacturers, including Sukhoi and
Mitsubishi.
-- Early Retirements = Early Demand. Because of high fuel prices,
demand caused by retirements will peak as high as 70% of all
orders in early years of the forecast period.
-- RJs - Say Good-Bye. Regional jets, properly defined as those
platforms operated mainly by small lift providers -- what used to
be described as "regional airlines" -- will see massive
retirements over the next five years, particularly units of 50
seats and below. In the U.S., over 900 units -- more than half
the current fleet -- will be retired. Contrary to other
forecasts that predict "thousands" of new RJs, the hard fact
is that there are no such next-generation airliners on the
drawing board. The RJ era is over.
-- Mergers Won't Dampen Demand. "Mergers won't change the fact that
existing fleets are incompatible with $110 oil prices," the
forecast notes. Another reason is the "100-seat gap" -- carriers
including American, Northwest, and United have a huge capacity
gap between the regional jets they are leasing and the smallest
mainline aircraft in their fleets. Even cutbacks in flying won't
affect demand for new units.
A-350: The Next Generation. The forecast notes that a years-long order backlog and creeping delivery delays for the 787 are combining to create a strong market for the Airbus A-350. Instead of being a "catch up platform, the A-350 will be coming on the market just as the first-generation 777s start to come off lease. The A-350, in its current planned configuration, represents a prime replacement for the -777.
For more information, and to order the 2008 - 2017 Global Fleet Demand & Trend Forecast, log on to: http://www.AviationPlanning.com/fleetforecast1.htm. Or call: 303 674-2000.
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