NEWPORT BEACH, Calif., June 24, 2008 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- Demand for temporary workers in the United States for the 2008 third quarter is expected to fall 4.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis over the same period in 2007, according to the Palmer Forecast(tm), released today.
The Palmer Forecast(tm) indicated an 8.1% decline in staffing for the preceding 2008 second quarter, which currently is trending toward a 5.9% decline. The company said the difference primarily reflected higher than expected GDP figures for the quarter.
"Our forecast shows the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines," said Greg Palmer, founder and chief executive officer of G. Palmer & Associates, an Orange County, CA-based staffing industry consulting firm. "Combined with recent reports from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), it is clear that the job market continues to weaken and will likely be soft at least through the remainder of this year."
The most recent BLS non-farm report indicated a jump in the unemployment rate to 5.5% from 5.0%, which is the largest monthly increase in more than two decades. The rate of temp penetration -- temps as percentage of total work force -- fell to 1.79%, which is the lowest since April 2004. Palmer said the decline in this metric typically indicates a recession.
The BLS report also indicated that private sector employment, excluding education and healthcare, declined by 120,000 jobs in May and is now down by 653,000 jobs year-to-date. In May, there were 49,000 lost jobs in the U.S., which is slightly lower than census expectations of 60,000. The losses in the month were off set by gains in government, healthcare and education industries.
Palmer said that for people with college degrees, unemployment remains low, at 2.2%, as employers are maintaining highly skilled staff. He said people with high school degrees have felt the burden of workforce declines, with an unemployment rate increase to 8.3% from 7.8%, according to the most recent BLS report. The general unemployment rate is currently 5.5%.
The Palmer Forecast(tm) is based, in part, on BLS and other key indicators. The model was initially developed by The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University and serves as an indicator of economic activity. Companies that employ temporary staff use the forecast as a guide to navigate through fluctuating economic conditions in managing their workforce to meet business demands.
About G. Palmer & Associates
G. Palmer & Associates, founded in 2006, advises companies in the human capital sector with sales, operations and margin enhancement, and to explore strategic alternatives for increasing shareholder value. Founder Greg Palmer has served on the board of the American Staffing Association and was president and chief executive officer of RemedyTemp, Inc., one of the nation's largest temporary staffing companies, prior to its sale in June 2006. For more information, visit www.GPalmerandAssociates.com.