Iceland Leading Indicator -- Continued Growth

| Source: Analytica

REYKJAVIK, Iceland, Dec. 20, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Iceland Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) continued to rise in November. This is the fifth consecutive rise of the CLI. The indicator published by independent advisory company Analytica, is designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend. The indicator points to continued growth in the months ahead.

The official growth figures for the first nine months published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland on Dec. 6th delivered a surprising 3.1 per cent growth on the year. There are now indications that growth for the full year may come in at above 3 per cent. This is significantly above what was anticipated based on the CLI.

Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.

There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For November four of the six underlying components are strengthening year on year. However, three of the six components rise on the previous month.

Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The November value rises by 0.2 per cent to 102.7 from a revised October value of 102.5. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. May. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend.

Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2012-2013  
    Change in % Indication
  Index on month YOY for month
 November 101.4 0.1% 1.6% May
 December 101.3 -0.1% 1.2% June
 January 101.4 0.1% 1.0% July
 February 101.6 0.2% 0.9% August
 March 101.8 0.2% 0.9% Sept.
 April 101.9 0.1% 0.8% Oct.
 May 101.8 -0.1% 0.4% Nov.
 June 101.6 -0.2% 0.0% Dec.
 July 101.6 0.0% -0.2% Jan. 2014
 August 101.8 0.2% 0.0% Feb.
 September 102.2 0.3% 0.4% March
 October 102.5 0.3% 0.9% April
 November 102.7 0.2% 1.2% May

The December Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on January 17, 2014.

Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO,
Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: