REYKJAVIK, Iceland, Jan. 21, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Iceland Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) continued to rise in December. This is the sixth consecutive rise of the CLI. The indicator published by independent advisory company Analytica, is designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend. The indicator points to continued growth in the months ahead.
Recent monthly economic indicators point to 2013 growth being somewhat stronger than anticipated or around 3.0-3.5 per cent. It seems likely that the fourth quarter services exports have grown by 15-20 per cent on the year in real terms driven by growth in tourism. It also looks like 2014 is starting on a strong note.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For December four of the six underlying components are strengthening year on year. Also four of the six components rise on the previous month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The December value rises by 0.2 per on the month cent to 102.9. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. June. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend.
| Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2012-2013 | ||||
| Change in % | Indication | |||
| Index | on month | YOY | for month | |
| 2012 | ||||
| December | 101.1 | -0.1% | 1.1% | June |
| 2013 | ||||
| January | 101.2 | 0.1% | 0.9% | July |
| February | 101.4 | 0.2% | 0.8% | August |
| March | 101.6 | 0.2% | 0.8% | Sept. |
| April | 101.7 | 0.1% | 0.6% | Oct. |
| May | 101.6 | -0.1% | 0.3% | Nov. |
| June | 101.4 | -0.2% | -0.1% | Dec. |
| July | 101.4 | 0.0% | -0.3% | Jan. 2014 |
| August | 101.6 | 0.2% | -0.1% | Feb. |
| September | 102.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | March |
| October | 102.4 | 0.4% | 1.0% | April |
| November | 102.7 | 0.3% | 1.4% | May |
| December | 102.9 | 0.2% | 1.8% | June |
The January Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on February 20, 2014.