REYKJAVIK, Iceland, July 24, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Iceland Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) dropped in June for the second month in row. The indicator published by independent advisory company Analytica, is designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend. The dip in the past couple of months is not viewed as a significant change in growth prospects.
There are various indications of a continued pickup in domestic demand and the number of tourists continues to grow at a fast pace.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For June five of the six underlying components are strengthening year on year. Also, five of the six components rise on the previous month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The value for June falls by 0.2 percent on the month to 101.5. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. December. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend.
| Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2013-2014 | ||||||
| Change in % | Indication | |||||
| Index | on month | YOY | for month | |||
| 2013 | ||||||
| June | 101.3 | -0.2% | -0.4% | Dec. | ||
| July | 101.4 | 0.1% | -0.6% | Jan. 2014 | ||
| August | 101.6 | 0.2% | -0.4% | Feb. | ||
| September | 101.9 | 0.3% | 0.1% | March | ||
| October | 102.1 | 0.2% | 0.5% | April | ||
| November | 102.1 | 0.0% | 0.8% | May | ||
| December | 102.0 | -0.1% | 0.9% | June | ||
| 2014 | ||||||
| January | 101.9 | 0.0% | 0.8% | July | ||
| February | 101.9 | 0.0% | 0.6% | August | ||
| March | 102.0 | 0.0% | 0.5% | Sept. | ||
| April | 101.9 | -0.1% | 0.4% | Oct. | ||
| May | 101.7 | -0.2% | 0.3% | Nov. | ||
| June | 101.5 | -0.2% | 0.2% | Dec. | ||
The July Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on August 20, 2014.
Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is