REYKJAVIK, Iceland, Oct. 21, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Iceland Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) rose by 0.2 percent in September. However, prior figures saw some downward revisions. The indicator published by independent advisory company Analytica, is designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend. The CLI tentatively indicates that growth may be temporarily losing momentum.
The reasons behind the tentative signal are mainly twofold: Primarily there are delayed effects of the collapse in capelin catches. Also, seasonally adjusted figures indicate a somewhat slower growth in tourism. We maintain the same qualifications as last month.
Most of the September CLI components contract on the prior month. This is in contrast to the developments earlier this year. The current CLI rise is solely attributed to changes in fish catches.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For September, five of the six underlying components are strengthening year on year. However, five of the six components fall on the previous month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The value for September rises by 0.2 percent on the month to 101.1. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. March 2015. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend.
| Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2013-2014 | ||||
| Change in % | Indication | |||
| Index | on month | YOY | for month | |
| 2013 | ||||
| September | 101.9 | 0.2% | 0.3% | March 2014 |
| October | 102.0 | 0.1% | 0.8% | April |
| November | 101.9 | -0.1% | 1.0% | May |
| December | 101.7 | -0.2% | 1.0% | June |
| 2014 | ||||
| January | 101.6 | -0.1% | 0.9% | July |
| February | 101.5 | 0.0% | 0.7% | August |
| March | 101.6 | 0.1% | 0.5% | Sept. |
| April | 101.5 | -0.1% | 0.3% | Oct. |
| May | 101.4 | -0.2% | 0.1% | Nov. |
| June | 101.1 | -0.2% | -0.2% | Dec. |
| July | 100.9 | -0.2% | -0.6% | Jan. 2015 |
| August | 100.9 | 0.0% | -0.8% | Feb. |
| September | 101.1 | 0.2% | -0.8% | March |
The October Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on November 18, 2014.
Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is