SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 27, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar, and the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 941,735 units in March 2020, down 37% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 10.7 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 656,343 units, a decrease of 38% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

“March is traditionally a strong retail month and was off to a good start. As we inched closer to the middle of the month and the Coronavirus was declared a global pandemic, that triggered unprecedented protective measures from local and federal governments, and we began to see a stark drop in auto sales,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG.

“Economic uncertainty, coupled with health and safety concerns, have made consumers hesitant to visit dealer showrooms and make large purchases,” added Lyman. “However, the industry is rapidly pivoting to remote retailing practices and automakers and lenders have launched deferment programs and steep incentives to help ease consumer apprehensions. These offerings should help buoy demand a bit in the short-term.”

Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)

  • Total retail sales for March 2020 are expected to be down 37% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for March 2020 are expected to be down 12% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 38% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days from 17.4 million units to 10.7 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for March 2020 are expected to reach 2,707,235, down 29% from a year ago and down 24% from February 2020.
  • The average interest rates on new vehicle loans is 6.53%, based on TrueCar data.

“While new and used vehicle sales are both down year-over-year, used sales declines aren’t as steep, signaling a shift in demand to vehicles at lower price points,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics at TrueCar. “As incentives surface to assist with new vehicle affordability and the price delta between new vehicles and recent model year used vehicles shrinks, we can expect to see the demand even out between new and used.”

ALG’s Revised COVID-19 2020 New Vehicle Sales Forecast:

March 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as March 2019.)  For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

ManufacturerMar 2020 ForecastMar 2019 ActualFeb 2020 ActualYoY % ChangeYoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % ChangeMoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW  20,901  36,148  27,476-42.2%-37.6%-23.9%-20.9%
Daimler  17,839  30,627  26,088-41.8%-37.1%-31.6%-28.9%
FCA  117,473  200,307  183,926-41.4%-36.7%-36.1%-33.6%
Ford  138,914  230,382  189,561-39.7%-34.9%-26.7%-23.8%
GM  159,282  271,205  238,448-41.3%-36.6%-33.2%-30.5%
Honda  82,848  148,509  120,006-44.2%-39.8%-31.0%-28.2%
Hyundai  36,985  62,627  54,600-40.9%-36.2%-32.3%-29.6%
Kia  34,169  55,814  52,177-38.8%-33.9%-34.5%-31.9%
Nissan  83,576  150,768  99,253-44.6%-40.1%-15.8%-12.4%
Subaru  34,553  61,601  51,695-43.9%-39.4%-33.2%-30.5%
Tesla  9,939  13,000  20,450-23.5%-17.4%-51.4%-49.5%
Toyota  126,153  214,947  195,407-41.3%-36.6%-35.4%-32.9%
Volkswagen Group  36,680  62,577  50,390-41.4%-36.7%-27.2%-24.3%
Industry  941,735   1,608,662   1,373,324 -41.5%-36.8%-31.4%-28.7%

Retail Unit Sales

ManufacturerMar 2020 ForecastMar 2019 ActualFeb 2020 ActualYoY % ChangeYoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % ChangeMoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW  19,084  35,078  25,949-45.6%-41.2%-26.5%-23.5%
Daimler  13,371  28,767  23,734-53.5%-49.8%-43.7%-41.4%
FCA  62,541  151,141  128,833-58.6%-55.3%-51.5%-49.5%
Ford  90,954  133,947  133,421-32.1%-26.7%-31.8%-29.1%
GM  115,705  225,578  167,530-48.7%-44.6%-30.9%-28.2%
Honda  74,446  146,800  115,944-49.3%-45.2%-35.8%-33.2%
Hyundai  21,713  47,194  40,427-54.0%-50.3%-46.3%-44.1%
Kia  22,917  46,868  41,844-51.1%-47.2%-45.2%-43.0%
Nissan  46,714  101,269  68,324-53.9%-50.2%-31.6%-28.9%
Subaru  28,833  58,448  48,423-50.7%-46.7%-40.5%-38.1%
Tesla  9,939  13,000  20,450-23.5%-17.4%-51.4%-49.5%
Toyota  97,554  191,463  166,441-49.0%-45.0%-41.4%-39.0%
Volkswagen Group  29,656  56,395  44,783-47.4%-43.2%-33.8%-31.1%
Industry  665,343   1,292,614   1,078,492 -48.5%-44.4%-38.3%-35.8%

Fleet Unit Sales

ManufacturerMar 2020 ForecastMar 2019 ActualFeb 2020 ActualYoY % ChangeYoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % ChangeMoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW  1,816  1,070  1,52769.8%83.4%18.9%23.7%
Daimler  4,469  1,860  2,354140.2%159.4%89.8%97.4%
FCA  54,932  49,166  55,09311.7%20.7%-0.3%3.7%
Ford  47,960  96,435  56,140-50.3%-46.3%-14.6%-11.2%
GM  43,577  45,627  70,918-4.5%3.1%-38.6%-36.1%
Honda  8,401  1,709  4,062391.5%430.8%106.8%115.1%
Hyundai  15,271  15,433  14,173-1.0%6.9%7.7%12.1%
Kia  11,252  8,946  10,33325.8%35.8%8.9%13.2%
Nissan  36,862  49,499  30,929-25.5%-19.6%19.2%23.9%
Subaru  5,719  3,153  3,27281.4%95.9%74.8%81.8%
Tesla  -   -   -     
Toyota  28,599  23,484  28,96621.8%31.5%-1.3%2.7%
Volkswagen Group  7,024  6,182  5,60713.6%22.7%25.3%30.3%
Industry  276,392   316,048   294,832 -12.5%-5.6%-6.3%-2.5%

Fleet Penetration

ManufacturerMar 2020 Forecast Mar 2019 Actual Feb 2020 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change 
BMW8.7%3.0%5.6%193.7%56.3%
Daimler25.1%6.1%9.0%312.4%177.6%
FCA46.8%24.5%30.0%90.5%56.1%
Ford34.5%41.9%29.6%-17.5%16.6%
GM27.4%16.8%29.7%62.6%-8.0%
Honda10.1%1.2%3.4%781.1%199.6%
Hyundai41.3%24.6%26.0%67.6%59.1%
Kia32.9%16.0%19.8%105.4%66.3%
Nissan44.1%32.8%31.2%34.3%41.5%
Subaru16.6%5.1%6.3%223.4%161.6%
Tesla0.0%0.0%0.0%  
Toyota22.7%10.9%14.8%107.5%52.9%
Volkswagen Group19.1%9.9%11.1%93.8%72.1%
Industry29.3%19.6%21.5%49.4%36.7%

Total Market Share

ManufacturerMar 2020 Forecast Mar 2019 Actual Feb 2020 Actual 
BMW2.2%2.2%2.0%
Daimler1.9%1.9%1.9%
FCA12.5%12.5%13.4%
Ford14.8%14.3%13.8%
GM16.9%16.9%17.4%
Honda8.8%9.2%8.7%
Hyundai3.9%3.9%4.0%
Kia3.6%3.5%3.8%
Nissan8.9%9.4%7.2%
Subaru3.7%3.8%3.8%
Tesla1.1%0.8%1.5%
Toyota13.4%13.4%14.2%
Volkswagen Group3.9%3.9%3.7%

Retail Market Share

ManufacturerMar 2020 Forecast Mar 2019 Actual Feb 2020 Actual 
BMW2.9%2.7%2.4%
Daimler2.0%2.2%2.2%
FCA9.4%11.7%11.9%
Ford13.7%10.4%12.4%
GM17.4%17.5%15.5%
Honda11.2%11.4%10.8%
Hyundai3.3%3.7%3.7%
Kia3.4%3.6%3.9%
Nissan7.0%7.8%6.3%
Subaru4.3%4.5%4.5%
Tesla1.5%1.0%1.9%
Toyota14.7%14.8%15.4%
Volkswagen Group4.5%4.4%4.2%

Quarterly Tables
Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

ManufacturerQ1 2020Q1 2019Q4 2019YoY % ChangeYoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % ChangeQoQ % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW  69,901  82,793  100,952-15.6%-16.7%-30.8%-28.9%
Daimler  69,114  78,878  105,885-12.4%-13.5%-34.7%-33.0%
FCA  438,415  500,870  538,710-12.5%-13.6%-18.6%-16.5%
Ford  499,458  586,956  604,198-14.9%-16.0%-17.3%-15.2%
GM  632,871  665,005  735,497-4.8%-6.1%-14.0%-11.7%
Honda  304,421  369,787  420,752-17.7%-18.8%-27.6%-25.7%
Hyundai  135,598  151,787  190,189-10.7%-11.8%-28.7%-26.8%
Kia  126,607  136,596  149,788-7.3%-8.5%-15.5%-13.3%
Nissan  262,624  365,851  309,353-28.2%-29.2%-15.1%-12.9%
Subaru  132,532  156,754  177,167-15.5%-16.6%-25.2%-23.2%
Tesla  49,190  46,900  48,2394.9%3.5%2.0%4.7%
Toyota  487,623  543,716  613,486-10.3%-11.5%-20.5%-18.4%
Volkswagen Group  131,974  149,618  168,233-11.8%-13.0%-21.6%-19.5%
Industry  3,340,326   3,835,511   4,300,460 -12.9%-14.1%-22.3%-20.3%

Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

ManufacturerQ1 2020Q1 2019Q4 2019YoY % ChangeYoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % ChangeQoQ % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW  70,256  80,158  92,992-12.4%-13.5%-24.4%-22.5%
Daimler  60,202  73,937  102,312-18.6%-19.6%-41.2%-39.6%
FCA  274,885  377,632  406,214-27.2%-28.2%-32.3%-30.5%
Ford  326,248  366,169  443,331-10.9%-12.1%-26.4%-24.5%
GM  414,409  508,509  532,562-18.5%-19.6%-22.2%-20.1%
Honda  297,439  366,537  416,814-18.9%-19.9%-28.6%-26.8%
Hyundai  100,834  108,615  163,358-7.2%-8.4%-38.3%-36.6%
Kia  101,592  108,963  131,832-6.8%-8.0%-22.9%-20.9%
Nissan  177,832  247,219  270,912-28.1%-29.0%-34.4%-32.6%
Subaru  122,901  147,682  171,157-16.8%-17.9%-28.2%-26.3%
Tesla  49,190  46,900  48,2394.9%3.5%2.0%4.7%
Toyota  398,355  465,616  580,907-14.4%-15.6%-31.4%-29.6%
Volkswagen Group  113,579  134,786  160,055-15.7%-16.8%-29.0%-27.2%
Industry  2,507,723   3,032,723   3,678,198 -17.3%-18.4-31.8%-30.0%

Total Market Share, Quarterly

ManufacturerQ1 2020 Q1 2019 Q4 2019 
BMW2.1%2.2%2.3%
Daimler2.1%2.1%2.5%
FCA13.1%13.1%12.5%
Ford15.0%15.3%14.0%
GM18.9%17.3%17.1%
Honda9.1%9.6%9.8%
Hyundai4.1%4.0%4.4%
Kia3.8%3.6%3.5%
Nissan7.9%9.5%7.2%
Subaru4.0%4.1%4.1%
Tesla1.5%1.2%1.1%
Toyota14.6%14.2%14.3%
Volkswagen Group4.0%3.9%3.9%

Retail Market Share, Quarterly

ManufacturerQ1 2020 Q1 2019 Q4 2019 
BMW2.8%2.6%2.5%
Daimler2.4%2.4%2.8%
FCA11.0%12.5%11.0%
Ford13.0%12.1%12.1%
GM16.5%16.8%14.5%
Honda11.9%12.1%11.3%
Hyundai4.0%3.6%4.4%
Kia4.1%3.6%3.6%
Nissan7.1%8.2%7.4%
Subaru4.9%4.9%4.7%
Tesla2.0%1.5%1.3%
Toyota15.9%15.4%15.8%
Volkswagen Group4.5%4.4%4.4%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com 

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