SANTA MONICA, Calif., June 25, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. and the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,098,960 units in June 2020, down 24% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 13 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,014,927 units, a decrease of 15% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

“Automotive retail continues to show positive momentum, rebounding from April lows and performing better than initially expected as states continue to ease restrictions,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Fleet is now also beginning to show signs of recovery, up twenty-two percent from last month, and we are also seeing significant improvement in the used market, where we expect used car sales to be up sixteen percent month over month.” 

“While used vehicle sales were initially hit harder than new vehicles due to COVID-19 impact, we expect that trend to reverse itself now due to new car inventory shortfalls. Used vehicle inventory is always much larger than new and lease returns have been picking back up, adding a flood of two to three-year-old vehicles back into the used market. Additionally, there’s attractive financing and lower price points which are all helping spur increased demand in the used vehicle market,” added Lyman. 

Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)

  • Total retail sales for June 2020 are expected to be down 15% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 1.5% from May 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for June 2020 are expected to be down 68% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 22% from May 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 25% from a year ago from 17.2 million units to 13 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for June 2020 are expected to reach 2,719,074, down 20% from a year ago and up 16% from May 2020.
  • The average interest rates on new vehicle loans is 5.99%

“Inventory availability will continue to affect new vehicle sales as a result of production pauses related to COVID-19,” said Nick Woolard Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics at TrueCar. “With no inventory cushion, Tesla’s build-to-order model is expected to result in the brand getting hit the hardest month-over month with production stops completely shutting down order fulfillment. Toyota has also experienced outsized retail sales decline this month compared with other brands due to inventory availability, especially on their popular Toyota Tacoma. In the short-term consumers will likely have a harder time finding exact trims and colors for certain vehicles across the board due to these supply shortages.”

Quarterly Insights: (Forecast by ALG)

  • Total unit sales for Q2 are expected to be down 34% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and down 19% from Q1 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total retail sales for Q2 are expected to be down 26% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and down 5% from Q1 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

June 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

ManufacturerJun 2020 ForecastJun 2019 ActualMay 2020 ActualYoY % ChangeYoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % ChangeMoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW  27,775  34,982  20,052-20.6%-17.4%38.5%44.1%
Daimler  18,930  29,275  20,958-35.3%-32.8%-9.7%-6.1%
FCA  138,478  206,083  137,119-32.8%-30.1%1.0%5.0%
Ford  150,925  218,691  154,775-31.0%-28.2%-2.5%1.4%
GM  171,626  249,182  175,921-31.1%-28.4%-2.4%1.5%
Honda  107,737  135,901  120,977-20.7%-17.6%-10.9%-7.4%
Hyundai  60,585  66,089  58,969-8.3%-4.7%2.7%6.8%
Kia  48,148  56,801  45,817-15.2%-11.8%5.1%9.3%
Nissan  68,469  123,504  65,349-44.6%-42.3%4.8%9.0%
Subaru  58,873  61,511  51,988-4.3%-0.5%13.2%17.8%
Tesla  6,561  14,400  8,150-54.4%-52.6%-19.5%-16.3%
Toyota  147,675  202,352  163,421-27.0%-24.1%-9.6%-6.0%
Volkswagen Group  46,683  56,697  42,205-17.7%-14.4%10.6%15.0%
Industry  1,098,960   1,509,963   1,111,723 -27.2%-24.3%-1.1%2.8%

Retail Unit Sales

ManufacturerJun 2020 ForecastJun 2019 ActualMay 2020 ActualYoY % ChangeYoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % ChangeMoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW  27,409  33,798  19,709-18.9%-15.7%39.1%44.6%
Daimler  17,985  27,076  20,250-33.6%-30.9%-11.2%-7.6%
FCA  124,062  158,176  131,240-21.6%-18.4%-5.5%-1.7%
Ford  121,598  150,291  135,188-19.1%-15.9%-10.1%-6.5%
GM  157,258  195,488  156,060-19.6%-16.3%0.8%4.8%
Honda  107,129  134,685  120,021-20.5%-17.3%-10.7%-7.2%
Hyundai  57,708  55,462  55,8464.0%8.2%3.3%7.5%
Kia  46,920  51,223  43,317-8.4%-4.7%8.3%12.7%
Nissan  62,305  85,211  58,900-26.9%-24.0%5.8%10.0%
Subaru  53,753  55,415  47,969-3.0%0.9%12.1%16.5%
Tesla  6,549  14,400  8,150-54.5%-52.7%-19.6%-16.4%
Toyota  142,789  179,346  158,423-20.4%-17.2%-9.9%-6.3%
Volkswagen Group  44,523  49,248  40,270-9.6%-6.0%10.6%15.0%
Industry  1,014,927   1,236,347   1,040,054 -17.9%-14.6%-2.4%1.5%

Fleet Unit Sales

ManufacturerJun 2020 ForecastJun 2019 ActualMay 2020 ActualYoY % ChangeYoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % ChangeMoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW  366  1,184  343-69.0%-67.8%6.8%11.0%
Daimler  944  2,199  708-57.1%-55.3%33.5%38.8%
FCA  14,417  47,907  5,879-69.9%-68.7%145.2%155.0%
Ford  29,327  68,400  19,587-57.1%-55.4%49.7%55.7%
GM  14,369  53,694  19,861-73.2%-72.2%-27.7%-24.8%
Honda  608  1,216  956-50.0%-48.0%-36.4%-33.8%
Hyundai  2,877  10,627  3,123-72.9%-71.8%-7.9%-4.2%
Kia  1,227  5,578  2,500-78.0%-77.1%-50.9%-49.0%
Nissan  6,164  38,293  6,449-83.9%-83.3%-4.4%-0.6%
Subaru  5,120  6,096  4,019-16.0%-12.6%27.4%32.5%
Tesla  12  -   -  - - - - 
Toyota  4,886  23,006  4,998-78.8%-77.9%-2.2%1.7%
Volkswagen Group  2,159  7,449  1,935-71.0%-69.9%11.6%16.0%
Industry  84,033   273,616   71,669 -69.3%-68.1%17.3%21.9%

Fleet Penetration

ManufacturerJun 2020 ForecastJun 2019 ActualMay 2020 ActualYoY % ChangeMoM % Change
BMW1.3%3.4%1.7%-61.0%-22.9%
Daimler5.0%7.5%3.4%-33.6%47.8%
FCA10.4%23.2%4.3%-55.2%142.8%
Ford19.4%31.3%12.7%-37.9%53.5%
GM8.4%21.5%11.3%-61.1%-25.8%
Honda0.6%0.9%0.8%-36.9%-28.6%
Hyundai4.7%16.1%5.3%-70.5%-10.3%
Kia2.5%9.8%5.5%-74.0%-53.3%
Nissan9.0%31.0%9.9%-71.0%-8.8%
Subaru8.7%9.9%7.7%-12.2%12.5%
Tesla0.2%0.0%0.0% - - 
Toyota3.3%11.4%3.1%-70.9%8.2%
Volkswagen Group4.6%13.1%4.6%-64.8%0.9%
Industry7.6%18.1%6.4%-57.8%18.6%

Total Market Share

ManufacturerJun 2020 ForecastJun 2019 ActualMay 2020 Actual
BMW2.5%2.3%1.8%
Daimler1.7%1.9%1.9%
FCA12.6%13.6%12.3%
Ford13.7%14.5%13.9%
GM15.6%16.5%15.8%
Honda9.8%9.0%10.9%
Hyundai5.5%4.4%5.3%
Kia4.4%3.8%4.1%
Nissan6.2%8.2%5.9%
Subaru5.4%4.1%4.7%
Tesla0.6%1.0%0.7%
Toyota13.4%13.4%14.7%
Volkswagen Group4.2%3.8%3.8%

Retail Market Share

ManufacturerJun 2020 ForecastJun 2019 ActualMay 2020 Actual
BMW2.7%2.7%1.9%
Daimler1.8%2.2%1.9%
FCA12.2%12.8%12.6%
Ford12.0%12.2%13.0%
GM15.5%15.8%15.0%
Honda10.6%10.9%11.5%
Hyundai5.7%4.5%5.4%
Kia4.6%4.1%4.2%
Nissan6.1%6.9%5.7%
Subaru5.3%4.5%4.6%
Tesla0.6%1.2%0.8%
Toyota14.1%14.5%15.2%
Volkswagen Group4.4%4.0%3.9%

Quarterly Tables
Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

ManufacturerQ2 2020Q2 2019Q1 2020YoY % ChangeYoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % ChangeQoQ % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW  55,983  91,230  65,237-38.6%-38.6%-14.2%-15.3%
Daimler  51,166  85,039  69,846-39.8%-39.8%-26.7%-27.7%
FCA  368,587  600,434  445,345-38.6%-38.6%-17.2%-18.3%
Ford  425,291  644,498  529,556-34.0%-34.0%-19.7%-20.7%
GM  485,120  744,316  643,541-34.8%-34.8%-24.6%-25.6%
Honda  286,465  407,208  298,726-29.7%-29.7%-4.1%-5.3%
Hyundai  154,328  191,548  134,700-19.4%-19.4%14.6%13.1%
Kia  125,670  168,248  137,851-25.3%-25.3%-8.8%-10.0%
Nissan  180,507  351,185  256,703-48.6%-48.6%-29.7%-30.6%
Subaru  141,481  182,771  130,590-22.6%-22.6%8.3%6.9%
Tesla  18,428  36,300  56,200-49.2%-49.2%-67.2%-67.6%
Toyota  396,259  608,392  494,668-34.9%-34.9%-19.9%-20.9%
Volkswagen Group  116,967  167,694  128,935-30.2%-30.2%-9.3%-10.5%
Industry  2,921,510   4,431,851   3,548,037 -34.1%-34.1%-17.7%-18.7%

Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

ManufacturerQ2 2020Q2 2019Q1 2020YoY % ChangeYoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % ChangeQoQ % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW  55,245  88,362  59,172-37.5%-37.5%-6.6%-7.8%
Daimler  48,613  79,056  64,985-38.5%-38.5%-25.2%-26.2%
FCA  330,214  438,080  325,269-24.6%-24.6%1.5%0.2%
Ford  342,650  427,648  334,639-19.9%-19.9%2.4%1.1%
GM  444,506  601,826  447,663-26.1%-26.1%-0.7%-2.0%
Honda  284,849  402,815  293,904-29.3%-29.3%-3.1%-4.3%
Hyundai  146,999  148,388  107,112-0.9%-0.9%37.2%35.5%
Kia  122,467  141,334  116,732-13.3%-13.3%4.9%3.6%
Nissan  164,256  237,538  177,572-30.9%-30.9%-7.5%-8.7%
Subaru  129,176  165,116  123,192-21.8%-21.8%4.9%3.5%
Tesla  18,321  36,300  56,200-49.5%-49.5%-67.4%-67.8%
Toyota  383,148  535,550  420,712-28.5%-28.5%-8.9%-10.1%
Volkswagen Group  111,556  149,356  113,520-25.3%-25.3%-1.7%-3.0%
Industry  2,664,766   3,588,832   2,761,404 -25.7%-25.7%-3.5%-4.8%

Total Market Share, Quarterly

ManufacturerQ2 2020Q2 2019Q1 2020
BMW1.9%2.1%1.8%
Daimler1.8%1.9%2.0%
FCA12.6%13.5%12.6%
Ford14.6%14.5%14.9%
GM16.6%16.8%18.1%
Honda9.8%9.2%8.4%
Hyundai5.3%4.3%3.8%
Kia4.3%3.8%3.9%
Nissan6.2%7.9%7.2%
Subaru4.8%4.1%3.7%
Tesla0.6%0.8%1.6%
Toyota13.6%13.7%13.9%
Volkswagen Group4.0%3.8%3.6%

Retail Market Share, Quarterly

ManufacturerQ2 2020Q2 2019Q1 2020
BMW2.1%2.5%2.1%
Daimler1.8%2.2%2.4%
FCA12.4%12.2%11.8%
Ford12.9%11.9%12.1%
GM16.7%16.8%16.2%
Honda10.7%11.2%10.6%
Hyundai5.5%4.1%3.9%
Kia4.6%3.9%4.2%
Nissan6.2%6.6%6.4%
Subaru4.8%4.6%4.5%
Tesla0.7%1.0%2.0%
Toyota14.4%14.9%15.2%
Volkswagen Group4.2%4.2%4.1%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email:  

TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali

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