TORONTO--(Marketwire - May 31, 2012) - TransUnion's quarterly analysis of Canadian credit trends found that the average consumer's total debt (excluding mortgage) grew slowly during Q1 2012, rising only $69 to $26,029. This maintains the trend of relatively slow growth seen in the past five quarters. Since the Q4 2009, Canadians' debt growth, on a year-over-year basis, had been declining. Its lowest growth rate was 0.98% between Q4 2010 and Q4 2011. This first quarter marks a reversal in that declining trend, coming in above the 1% mark at 1.66%.
Auto loan debt experienced the largest year-over-year rise of all variables that make up consumer total debt, rising more than $2,000 from $16,181 in Q1 2011 to $18,212 in Q1 2012. Despite a relatively large spike in auto loan debt, auto delinquencies dropped to 0.09% in Q1 2012, the lowest level in at least two years.
"While total debt remains high, the auto loan dynamic skews the total debt number for Q1," said Thomas Higgins, TransUnion's vice president of analytics and decision services. "This could be seen as a positive. Increases in auto loan debt generally mean more consumers are purchasing vehicles and are effectively managing their debt because they have strong enough credit to qualify for loans."
The marginal increase of average debt was consistent throughout Canada. All provinces experienced increases during the quarter except Alberta and Manitoba, albeit small declines. On a year-over-year basis, only Alberta posted a decreased annual growth rate in Q1 2012 versus Q1 2011.
| Average Consumer Debt | Q1 2011 | Q2 2011 | Q3 2011 | Q4 2011 | Q1 2012 | Q/Q Chg | Y/Y Chg | |||||||
| British Columbia | $36,649 | $36,820 | $36,588 | $37,276 | $37,433 | 0.4% | 2.1% | |||||||
| Alberta | $34,185 | $34,081 | $33,182 | $33,613 | $33,515 | -0.3% | -2.0% | |||||||
| Ontario | $24,869 | $24,721 | $24,540 | $25,135 | $25,235 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |||||||
| Quebec | $18,025 | $18,269 | $18,751 | $18,376 | $18,475 | 0.5% | 2.5% |
Consumer Debt - Quarterly/Yearly
Despite year-over-year growth on total consumer debt, certain credit instruments have experienced declines on both a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis.
- Canadian average credit card borrower debt (defined as the aggregate balance on all credit cards for an individual bankcard borrower) declined -2.16% year over year, and quarter over quarter -4.69%.
- Canadian lines of credit (LOC) borrower debt (defined as the aggregate balance on all LOC for an individual LOC borrower) increased 1.02% year over year, but dropped 0.68% quarter over quarter.
- Canadian instalment loan borrower debt (defined as the aggregate balance on all instalment loans for an individual instalment loan borrower) decreased -2.04% year over year with an increase of 0.96% quarter over quarter.
- Canadian auto borrower debt (defined as the aggregate balance on all auto captive loans for an individual auto captive borrower) increased more than 12.55% year over year and 2.55% quarter over quarter.
| Q4 2010 | Q1 2011 | Q2 2011 | Q3 2011 | Q4 2011 | Q1 2012 | |||||||
| Credit Cards | $3,688 | $3,539 | $3,590 | $3,611 | $3,633 | $3,462 | ||||||
| Lines of Credit | $33,981 | $33,762 | $33,855 | $34,122 | $34,340 | $34,107 | ||||||
| Instalment Loans | $22,976 | $22,431 | $22,281 | $22,340 | $21,764 | $21,974 | ||||||
| Auto Captives | $16,189 | $16,181 | $16,671 | $17,283 | $17,759 | $18,212 |
Consumer Delinquencies - Quarterly/Yearly
Delinquency levels continue to remain low across all major product categories, and have settled to their natural levels.
"Continued low delinquency levels is a positive for the economy as Canadians have shown the wherewithal to keep their credit accounts in good standing -- even when accumulating more debt," added Higgins.
| Q1 2011 | Q3 2011 | Q4 2011 | Q1 2012 | Q/Q Chg | Y/Y Chg | |||||||
| Credit Cards | 0.38% | 0.32% | 0.31% | 0.32% | 3.61% | -14.56% | ||||||
| Lines of Credit | 0.21% | 0.20% | 0.21% | 0.20% | -2.36% | -5.61% | ||||||
| Instalment Loans | 1.28% | 1.32% | 1.27% | 1.24% | -2.21% | -3.25% | ||||||
| Auto Captives | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.09% | -2.32% | -8.43% |
Three Highest Delinquency Provinces
| Credit Cards | Lines of Credit | Instalment Loans | Auto Captives | |||
| PEI 0.60% | BC 0.26% | ON 1.97% | MB 0.28% | |||
| NB 0.51% | ON 0.23% | PEI 1.74% | NS 0.17% | |||
| NS 0.51% | PEI 0.25% | NS 1.66% | NB 0.17% |
Three Lowest Delinquency Provinces
| Credit Cards | Lines of Credit | Instalment Loans | Auto Captives | |||
| QC 0.21% | NL 0.10% | QC 0.47% | QC 0.06% | |||
| AB/BC 0.32% | QC 0.13% | NL 1.08% | AB, SK & NL 0.08% | |||
| SK 0.29% | NB 0.16% | SK 1.07% | BC 0.07% |
Consumer Bankruptcies - Quarterly/Yearly
Consumer bankruptcies in Canada continue to fall back to historical levels after the record year in 2009, posting double digit year-over-year decreases in all of the past eight quarters.
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |||||||||
| Q1 | 5.23% | -3.24% | -1.83% | -3.74% | 2.88% | 34.63% | -15.08% | -14.37% | ||||||||
| Q2 | -0.15% | 3.13% | -10.35% | 2.23% | 7.39% | 41.25% | -21.69% | -16.52% | ||||||||
| Q3 | -2.61% | 1.43% | -11.08% | 7.89% | 16.78% | 41.10% | -31.30% | -15.70% | ||||||||
| Q4 | -1.59% | -0.39% | -6.05% | 1.60% | 27.40% | 0.34% | -10.41% | -16.8% |
Based on tracking from the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy, year over year reported bankruptcies continue to be down significantly the past two years across all regions. Ontario showed the largest decreases in both 2010 and 2011, while the East has been one of the lowest each year. Quebec was the only single digit decrease in 2011.
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |||||||||
| Canada | -0.35% | 0.31% | -7.15% | 2.22% | 10.44% | 34.22% | -22.02% | -15.86% | ||||||||
| West | -7.83% | -5.21% | -20.18% | -8.76% | 8.16% | 57.00% | -15.91% | -16.30% | ||||||||
| Ontario | 1.46% | 1.93% | -7.28% | 8.40% | 12.18% | 35.06% | -30.17% | -22.64% | ||||||||
| Quebec | 2.46% | 0.07% | 5.10% | 3.78% | 10.68% | 24.68% | -19.61% | -8.80% | ||||||||
| East | 6.77% | 8.96% | -8.27% | -1.82% | 7.46% | 19.94% | -8.91% | -12.45% |
TransUnion's Market Trends
TransUnion's Market Trends is an in-depth, full sample solution that provides statistical information every quarter from TransUnion's national consumer credit database, culled from anonymous credit files. Each Canadian consumer record contains hundreds of credit variables that illustrate consumer credit usage and performance. By leveraging Market Trends, customers from a variety of industries can analyze industry trends over an entire business cycle, helping to understand consumer behaviour in different geographic locations throughout Canada.
About TransUnion
As a global leader in information and risk management, TransUnion creates advantages for millions of people around the world by gathering, analyzing and delivering information. For businesses, TransUnion helps improve efficiency, manage risk, reduce costs and increase revenue by delivering high quality data, and integrating advanced analytics and enhanced decision-making capabilities. For consumers, TransUnion provides the tools, resources and education to help manage their credit health and achieve their financial goals. Through these and other efforts, TransUnion is working to build stronger economies worldwide. Based in Burlington, Ontario, with global headquarters located in Chicago, Illinois, TransUnion provides local service and support throughout Canada. Visit www.transunion.ca to learn more.
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