REYKJAVIK, Iceland, Jan. 20, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Iceland Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) rose by 0.4 percent in December. This is the fourth consecutive rise of the indicator. The CLI hints at growth picking up in early 2015.
As before the growth in tourism is one of the main drivers behind the CLI rise together with the increase in fish catches. A tentative turning point to the upside has been placed in August last indicating a GDP turning point in February. However, there are several external risk factors mainly in relation to the geopolitical situation.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For December all of the six underlying components are strengthening year on year. However, four of the six components rise on the previous month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The value for December rises by 0.4 percent on the month to 101.9. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. June 2015. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend.
| Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2013-2014 | ||||
| Change in % | Indication | |||
| Index | on month | YOY | for month | |
| 2013 | ||||
| December | 101.5 | -0.2% | 0.9% | June 2014 |
| 2014 | ||||
| January | 101.4 | -0.2% | 0.8% | July |
| February | 101.3 | -0.1% | 0.6% | August |
| March | 101.3 | 0.0% | 0.4% | Sept. |
| April | 101.3 | -0.1% | 0.2% | Oct. |
| May | 101.1 | -0.1% | 0.0% | Nov. |
| June | 100.9 | -0.2% | -0.3% | Dec. |
| July | 100.6 | -0.3% | -0.7% | Jan. 2015 |
| August | 100.6 | -0.1% | -0.9% | Feb. |
| September | 100.7 | 0.2% | -1.0% | March |
| October | 101.0 | 0.3% | -0.8% | April |
| November | 101.4 | 0.4% | -0.3% | May |
| December | 101.9 | 0.4% | 0.3% | June |
The January Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on February 18, 2015.
Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is