Forecast International Sees JLTV Program as a Bright Spot in a Down Market

Newton, Connecticut, UNITED STATES

NEWTOWN, Conn., Feb. 20, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- While the ongoing worldwide economic crisis continues to have a significant negative impact on defense spending, defense intelligence provider Forecast International expects the international light wheeled vehicle market to produce over 36,000 units, worth at least $30.9 billion, through 2024.

"Assuming the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle program survives the ongoing budget crisis and enters serial production as scheduled in FY18, we believe the vehicle will utterly dominate the light wheeled vehicle market, just as the HMMWV did between 2005 and 2009," said military weapons analyst Dean Lockwood. "The JLTV could account for 75 percent of production through 2024."

The U.S. Department of Defense currently maintains a revised procurement objective of 54,599 JLTVs – 49,099 for the U.S. Army and 5,500 for the U.S. Marine Corps. The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimates that the DoD will spend more than $53.3 billion on the JLTV program – $1.082 billion for RDT &E and at least $52.3 billion for procurement.

The JLTV program is currently in the midst of its 33-month engineering and manufacturing development phase. The three competitors – AM General, Lockheed Martin, and Oshkosh – are vying for the low-rate initial production contract, which the U.S. Army Tank-automotive and Armaments Command (TACOM) expects to award to a single contractor in FY15.

In Russia, production of the BTR-80A, BTR-82 and BTR-82A, and of the GAZ-2975, will provide Arzamas Machine Building Plant JSC with about a 4 percent share of all light wheeled vehicle production worldwide.

"This level of production makes the Arzamas organization the most prolific producer of light wheeled vehicles in the international market at this time," Lockwood said.

Meanwhile, the Type WZ 551 is the new standard Chinese People's Liberation Army light wheeled combat vehicle. Forecast International research indicates that the PLA may hold a revised procurement objective of more than 3,000 Type WZ 551 series vehicles.

The Type WZ 551 ranks as the second-largest light wheeled vehicle program in terms of volume, accounting for 3 percent of all light wheeled vehicle production worldwide and worth about 1 percent of the market value through 2024.

Given the developmental status of the JLTV, Forecast International notes that the Russian and Chinese light wheeled vehicle efforts rank as the largest market factors in terms of active serial production.

"If we remove anticipated JLTV production from the market forecast, we find the Arzamas organization would lead the market with about 15 percent of all light wheeled vehicle production worldwide, worth 6 percent of the market's value," Lockwood said. "Similarly, in a non-JLTV market forecast, the NORINCO Type WZ 551 would account for 12 percent of all new production, worth 5 percent of the light wheeled vehicle market."

About Forecast International

Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide. Forecast International's resources and extensive base of experience can be readily adapted and efficiently focused to fulfill a broad spectrum of civil and military consulting and special research requirements.


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