Global Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Therapeutics Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029


Dublin, March 10, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Therapeutics - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029" report has been added to's offering.

Over three decades ago, researchers identified the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) as the causative agent of a then-mysterious new illness, Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS). A member of the Lentivirus genus, HIV belongs to the family of retroviruses, which are RNA viruses with the ability to reverse transcribe their single-stranded RNA genome into double-stranded DNA. Following reverse transcription, the viral DNA is incorporated into the host cell genome. An estimated 75 million people have been infected with HIV since 1981, and AIDS has claimed the lives of more than 32 million people. In some countries, AIDS is the leading cause of death. Globally, one million people die from AIDS-related infections per year.

Rapid progress has been underscored by the emergence of once-daily, single-tablet regimens (STRs) such as Gilead Science's Atripla, Stribild, Biktarvy and Genvoya. ViiV Healthcare, which is a collaboration between Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, and Shionogi is the other major developer of STRs for HIV. These therapies have revolutionized the treatment landscape for HIV and offer patients an unparalleled level of convenience. Nonetheless, there is need for therapies delivered via non-oral routes of administration, and the publisher expects a number of such treatment options to become available over the course of the forecast window which is 2019-2029.

The publisher projects the global HIV marketplace - which, for the purposes of this report, comprises seven major pharmaceutical markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan) - will experience modest growth during the forecast period. The HIV therapeutics market was valued at $22.9B in 2019. The launch of long-acting injectable therapies and continued success of single-tablet regimens (STRs) will drive growth in the market, which will expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2%. By 2029, sales of anti-HIV therapeutics will reach $28B.

Key Highlights

  • The global HIV market was worth an estimated $22.9B in 2019. The publisher projects that this market will expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2%, reaching $28B in 2029.
  • Growth in the market is expected to be facilitated by the entry of non-oral therapies and pre-exposure prophylactic (PrEP) drugs, which will launch in all of the 7MM by the end of the forecast period.
  • The long-term efficacy of the pharmacologic management of HIV is highly dependent on patient compliance. Poor compliance is a risk factor for a shortened life expectancy and greater chance of contracting opportunistic infections. Pharmaceutical companies are attempting to address this issue by developing injectable therapies that are administered less frequently than market-leading oral drugs which are taken daily and are linked to side effects such as osteoporosis, hepatotoxicity, and kidney dysfunction.
  • By 2029, the US and 5EU markets will benefit from an influx of therapeutic agents that address different stages of HIV infection, including viral entry, reverse transcription, and integration of viral DNA into the host genome.
  • There will be several drivers that promote growth in the HIV therapeutics market. One example is the fact that non-oral therapies will launch in the 7MM. These drugs will diversify treatment options for patients. Other market drivers include the use of drugs with low frequencies of administration and the emergence of biologic drugs that have high annual costs of therapy (ACOT) which can be used to treat patients with multidrug-resistant infections.
  • Major barriers to growth in the HIV market during the forecast period will include the fact that social stigma prevents patients from seeking a diagnosis leading to a low diagnosis rate, increased disease transmission, and delayed initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The publisher also expects that lack of compliance among patients will persist, either because of the need to take multiple oral tablets on a daily basis in some treatment regimens, or because of undesirable side effects such as weight gain, changes in bone mineral density, lactic acidosis, or mental disorders.
  • Furthermore, marketed products such as ViiV Healthcare's Tivicay (dolutegravir) and Mylan's Symfi (efavirenz, lamivudine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate) will lose their patent protection during the forecast period, allowing cheaper generics to erode the sales of branded products.
  • The US accounted for the vast majority of sales, generating $19.5B in the base year of the forecast window. This equates to a market share of 85.2%. The 5EU markets generated a combined $3.2B in sales in 2019. The publisher valued the Japanese market at $152.1M in 2019. Sales in all of the 7MM except for Germany are expected to increase over the course of the forecast window. The US is projected to gain market share during the forecast period, generating 85.8% of sales in 2029.
  • In 2029, the 5EU markets will generate $3.8B. Japan is expected to contribute $225M in sales in the final year of the forecast window.
  • The PrEP market was valued at $2.6B in 2019. Sales of therapeutics used in PrEP are expected to reach $3.3B in 2029. Drug sales will be limited by the impact of generic erosion.

Companies Mentioned

  • Abbvie
  • Aelix Therapeutics
  • BioNTech
  • Biosantech
  • BMS
  • Boehringer Ingelheim
  • CytoDyn
  • Dewpoint Therapeutics
  • Gilead Sciences
  • GlaxoSmithKline
  • Starpharma
  • ImmunityBio
  • Janssen
  • Japan Tobacco
  • Johnson and Johnson
  • Merck
  • Mylan
  • Roche
  • Shionogi
  • TaiMed Biologics
  • Theratechnologies
  • ViiV Healthcare
  • AIM ImmunoTech

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