Global Electric Bus Market Report 2021: China is Expected to Reach 80% in 2030, While India and LATAM will be the Fastest-Growing Markets


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The global electric bus market size is expected to reach more than 210,000 units by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.9%.

The penetration of electric buses in China is expected to reach 80% in 2030 India and LATAM will be the fastest-growing markets between 2020 and 2030 with a CAGR of 38.4% and 28.4%, respectively.

Electric buses will find traction across major regions driven by emission regulations, battery price drop, the emergence of low emission zones, purchase subsidy, and tax exemptions. The growing adoption of electric transit buses has enabled global sourcing and supply chain for alternate powertrain buses.

The market is witnessing strong collaborations among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new players striving to enter the market. Battery-electric buses are expected to have a larger market share, followed by fuel cell electric buses by 2030. The lower total cost of ownership of electric buses, when compared to diesel buses, and the push for developing charging infrastructure will make electric buses a profitable option from 2024 to 2026.

EU Clean Vehicle directive targets for EU countries will boost electric bus adoption, particularly as part of national public transport procurement. BEV buses are expected to have strong growth from 2022 to 2025. JIVE projects encourage fuel cell bus adoption across EU countries. The entry of utility and energy major companies into electric charging infrastructure will boost the growth of fuelling infrastructure for electric vehicles.

In China, battery-electric buses will see moderate growth from 2022 to 2025 due to the reduction of subsidies and purchase incentives. The revised subsidy program in China incorporates stricter thresholds for electric range and energy efficiencies as the minimum requirement for qualification. However lower battery prices and charging infrastructure will drive higher electric bus adoption towards 2030. In addition, Chinese electric bus OEMs are rapidly expanding globally, with the establishment of manufacturing and assembly plants, in addition to exports.

Zero-emission Bus Rapid-Deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) is expected to drive the electric bus adoption in Latin America with the focus initially on Medellin, Sao Paulo, and Mexico City. Major countries are developing an electromobility strategy promoting zero-emission buses in public transportation. Chinese OEMs have established regional production bases to tap into LATAM. The electric bus unit shipments are expected to grow at a CAGR of 28.4% from 2020 to 2030.

The increasing need for reducing emissions, especially in highly-populated cities, will necessitate the need for electric buses in the intra-city passenger transport segment. Growing battery capacities coupled with aggressive development in charging infrastructure technologies is expected to increase the adoption rate of electric powertrains in the coaches segment though it faces stiff competition from diesel and natural gas buses.

Key Topics Covered:

1. Strategic Imperatives

  • Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
  • The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Bus Industry
  • Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine

2. Growth Opportunity Analysis, Electric Bus Market

  • Electric Bus Market Scope of Analysis
  • Product and Technology Segmentation
  • Key Competitors for Electric Buses
  • Key Growth Metrics for Global Electric Bus Market
  • Growth Drivers for the Adoption of Electric Buses
  • Growth Restraints for the Adoption of Electric Buses

3. Market Environment and Dynamics, Global Bus Market

  • Snapshot of Bus Market by Region in 2030
  • Global Bus Market - Unit Shipment Forecast by Region
  • Global Bus Market - Regional Split
  • Snapshot of xEV Bus Market by Region in 2030
  • Key Electric Bus Use Cases
  • Key Forecast Criteria
  • Key Factors Impacting Electrification
  • Analysis of Legislative Factors
  • Analysis of Economic Factors
  • Analysis of Infrastructure Factors
  • Analysis of Technological Factors
  • Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis
  • Global Electric Bus - Percent Unit Shipment Forecast by Region
  • Electric Bus Market - Regional Split by Technology, 2030
  • Electric Transit Bus Regional Pricing Outlook
  • Electric Coaches Regional Pricing Outlook

4. Electrification Technology Overview

  • Electric Motor Roadmap
  • Future of Battery Chemistries
  • CHAdeMO Charging
  • CHARIN
  • Pantograph Charging
  • Induction Charging
  • Electric Vehicle Technology Roadmap - Battery Electric Bus
  • Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology Roadmap - Fuel Cell Buses

5. Growth Opportunity Analysis, Electric Bus Market, North America

  • Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus, North America
  • Key Trends, North America
  • Incentives, North America
  • Major OEMs Offering xEVs, North America
  • Transit Bus Market - Powertrain Forecast, North America
  • Coaches Market - Powertrain Forecast, North America
  • Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis, North America
  • Transit Bus and Coach Unit Shipment Split by xEV, North America
  • OEM Motor and Battery Chemistry Mapping, North America

6. Growth Opportunity Analysis, Electric Bus Market, Europe

  • Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus - Europe
  • Key Trends, Europe
  • Incentives, Europe
  • Low Emission Zones (LEZs), Europe
  • Major OEMs Offering xEVs, Europe
  • Transit Bus Market - Powertrain Forecast, Europe
  • Coaches Market - Powertrain Forecast, Europe
  • Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis, Europe
  • Transit Bus and Coach Unit Shipment Split by xEV, Europe
  • OEM - Motor Type Mapping, Europe
  • OEM - Battery Chemistry Mapping, Europe
  • 2020 Regional Analysis - Germany
  • 2020 Regional Analysis - France
  • 2020 Regional Analysis - Spain
  • 2020 Regional Analysis - Italy
  • 2020 Regional Analysis - UK

7. Growth Opportunity Analysis, Electric Bus Market, China

  • Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus - China
  • Key Trends, China
  • Incentives, China
  • Major OEMs Offering xEVs, China
  • Transit Bus Market - Powertrain Forecast, China
  • Coaches Market - Powertrain Forecast, China
  • Transit Bus and Coach Unit Shipment Split by xEV, China
  • Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis, China

8. Growth Opportunity Analysis, Electric Bus Market, India

  • Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus-India
  • Key Trends, India
  • Incentives, India - FAME-II
  • Major OEMs Offering xEVs, India
  • Transit Bus Market - Powertrain Forecast, India
  • Coaches Market - Powertrain Forecast, India
  • Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis, India
  • Transit Bus and Coach Unit Shipment Split by xEV, India

9. Growth Opportunity Analysis, Electric Bus Market, Latin America

  • Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus, Latin America
  • Key Trends, Latin America
  • Incentives, Latin America
  • Major OEMs Offering xEVs, Latin America
  • Transit Bus Market - Powertrain Forecast, Latin America
  • Coaches Market - Powertrain Forecast, Latin America
  • Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis, Latin America
  • Transit Bus and Coach Unit Shipment Split by xEV, Latin America

10. Total Cost of Ownership, Transit Bus Market, North America

  • Operational Cost/Mile Comparison - Assumptions
  • Diesel Transit Bus - Price, Fuel, and R&M Breakdown
  • NG Transit Bus - Price, Fuel, and R&M Breakdown
  • Electric Transit Bus - Price, Fuel, and R&M Breakdown
  • Fuel Cell Transit Bus - Price, Fuel, and R&M Breakdown
  • Diesel, NG, Electric, Fuel Cell Transit Bus Operational CPM Comparison
  • Operational Cost/Mile ($/mile) - Diesel, Electric, NG, Fuel Cell

11. Growth Opportunity Universe, Electric Bus Market

  • Growth Opportunity - Expanding the Electric Bus Product Portfolio to Compete with Conventional Fuel-powered Buses

12. Next Steps

For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/j3g554

 

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