Levy Says Treasury Yields Have Yet to Peak

Global Markets Yet to Evince Risk-Off Shift Needed to Drive Yields Lower

Mount Kisco, New York, UNITED STATES


MOUNT KISCO, N.Y., July 07, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- David A. Levy wrote to clients in the June 2021 issue of The Levy Forecast® that absent a broad, powerful, risk-off shift across global financial markets, “the U.S. economy will be too strong in the next few months to prevent bonds from retreating.”

The chairman of the independent Jerome Levy Forecasting Center LLC (www.levyforecast.com) forecast that “The dominant influence on the bond market in coming months will again be fear of rising inflation caused by the red hot economy,” and that “Inflation fears will remain dominant until rising interest rates or other events spark serious international financial instability.”

Writing in a publication devoted to forecasting and analyzing economic and business conditions since 1949, Levy discussed the argument that the Federal Reserve’s June communications constituted a fundamental change in the outlook: “By historical standards, the June communications said remarkably little, largely because the Fed is hemmed in between inflationary growth and a huge, fragile bubble, leaving it virtually no room to meaningfully alter monetary policy.”

Levy also warned that “The economy’s presently enormous strength…belies the challenges to prosperity approaching roughly around yearend…. In 2022, the domestic economy will be far less bulletproof as government deficits provide less support for profits and reopening loses some of its oomph.”

About The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center LLC
The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center LLC is an independent economic research and consulting firm that has been specializing in using the macroeconomic Profits Perspective in economic analysis and forecasting for seven decades. The goal of the Levy Forecasting Center is to improve its clients’ business and investment performance by providing them with powerful insights into economic risks and opportunities – insights that are difficult or even impossible to achieve with conventional approaches to macroeconomic analysis. Additional information may be found at www.levyforecast.com.

For media inquiries contact Robert King, director of research, at The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center LLC – rking@levyforecast.com.