FBN Releases October Yield Report for U.S. Corn and Soybeans: Corn Is Falling Further Than September Estimates

Ahead of USDA’s Oct. 12 Yield Report, FBN Finds Widespread yield losses in Texas, Kansas and Nebraska, with only Illinois showing substantially better than expected yields so far

SAN CARLOS, Calif. and CHICAGO, Oct. 06, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Farmers Business Network (FBN®), the global farmer-to-farmer AgTech platform and farmer-to-farmer network, today released its 2022 October U.S. Corn and Soybean Yield Report, the third in FBN’s monthly series of 2022 yield reports published through December. FBN’s commodity forecasts are model-based and utilize the unique data provided by FBN members.

FBN Yield Report Key Findings

  • FBN’s latest model-based yield forecast is at 169.9 bushels per acre for U.S. corn and 50.2 bushels per acre for U.S. soybeans. Based on harvest results for corn through October 2, the U.S. corn yield estimate is 171.5 bushels per acre, which accounts for states where harvest is well underway and regional estimates from the model-based yield forecast.
  • Corn yield observations from FBN members show few signs that U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) corn yields will need to be adjusted higher in coming reports. There are forecasted widespread yield losses in Texas, Kansas and Nebraska, with only Illinois forecasting substantially better than expected yields so far.
  • While the September soybean yield forecast was a plus from a price perspective, September 1 stocks were not, coming in at 274 million bushels, which was above expectations and results in our 2022/2023 balance sheet - even from a week ago. While we are not in a burdensome supply situation yet, it is difficult to find justification for exceptionally higher soybean prices in the coming months.

Key Findings For Corn

  • FBN’s U.S. corn yield estimate, based on a mixture of the yield model and actual yield results, is 171.5.
  • Yields are performing noticeably below the USDA forecast in September across Texas (95 from FBN harvest data vs. 104 from the USDA) and Nebraska (173 vs. 176).
  • Of the key states reporting so far, the model predicts Illinois yields outperforming the USDA yield forecast in September (210 vs. 204)


Key Findings For Soybeans

  • In states where FBN’s model points to lower yields, those yields are substantially different from the USDA’s estimations; Iowa is the exception. But for states where FBN’s model estimates a higher yield, the difference is light with Nebraska being the exception.
  • In states where yields are set to be well off last year’s harvest — Nebraska being the top concern — supply issues could develop into the 2022/2023 crop year. Yields are expected to be shy of last year’s yields for six of the top nine states.

The forecasts in this report are model-based, utilizing FBN member survey data accounting for more than 4.2 million acres covering nine principal crops across 40 states in addition to satellite imagery data, crop condition data, and weather data. FBN estimates also incorporate field observation data from over 1,300 member corn yields.

“Our data set is unique because we combine modeling with input from our farmer members as they are harvesting,” said FBN Chief Economist Kevin McNew. “This forecast suggests that corn will probably not recover this year and that drought will have a major impact on the final numbers for the year given the widespread losses in Texas, Kansas and Nebraska.”

FBN Research will release additional yield reports every month through December. FBN’s model-based yield estimates are now coming to an end for the 2022 crop season. The FBN Research team will progress away from model-based estimates and instead shift to actual field observation analysis as FBN members contribute more data.


About FBN

Farmers Business Network® (FBN®) is an independent AgTech platform and farmer-to-farmer network with a mission to power the prosperity of family farmers around the world while working towards a sustainable future. Its Farmers First® promise has attracted over 48,000 members to the network with a common goal of helping farmers maximize their farm’s profit potential with data and technology enabled direct-to farmer commerce, community and sustainability offerings. FBN has set out to redefine value and convenience for farmers by helping reduce the cost of production and maximize the value of their crops. The FBN® network has grown to cover more than 105 million acres of member farms in the US, Canada, and Australia. Blending the best of Midwestern agricultural roots and Silicon Valley technology, the company has over 900 personnel and principal offices in San Carlos, CA, Chicago, IL, Sioux Falls, SD, a Canadian Headquarters in High River, Alberta, and an Australian Headquarters in Perth with significant warehouse and logistics, remote and field employees across the US, Canada and Australia.

To learn more, visit: www.fbn.com

Media Contact
Amy Wolfcale
Global Head of Corporate Communications and Media Relations
(917) 576 8767

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/0b54da02-8dbe-42be-bb23-b0fd143a3381