Government Support Critical to WiMAX Adoption in China
Market Expected to Generate Over 4 Million Subscribers and $7 Billion in Revenue by 2012
| Source: NSR
CAMBRIDGE, MA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- February 26, 2007 -- NSR today released its newest market survey
and forecast report: "China WiMAX, Assessing Growth Potential in a Complex
Market." The report provides an in-depth analysis of the emerging market
for WiMAX in China and presents demand forecasts for all WiMAX solutions
(fixed and mobile/nomadic) and customer types over the next 5 years.
NSR predicts a slow but steadily growing market for WiMAX in China. From a
relatively low revenue base of $130.0 million in 2007, the market is
forecasted to grow more robustly in the latter years of the forecast,
exceeding $7 billion by end-2012. The overall market translates to a
growing subscriber base as well as a developing ecosystem where government
support, form factor development and market receptiveness for new
technologies favor the adoption of WiMAX.
"But in order for WiMAX to succeed, many issues are now critical that will
determine the shape of the demand curve over the next several years. The
attitude of the Chinese Government towards WiMAX, which spectrum will be
adopted, how Chinese telecom carriers view it, and the relation between
WiMAX and 3G will all determine the development of WiMAX in China," states
Christopher Baugh, President of NSR.
The future of WiMAX relative to 3G is determined by the choice and balance
of the Chinese Government and telecom carriers, who generally see WiMAX and
3G as complementary today. Their attitudes have (and will) affect the
development of WiMAX, but policy related to competition or complementary
positioning will not be felt until both mobile WiMAX (802.16e) and 3G are
launched.
"China's highly dynamic economy and growing wealth can only be sustained
with continued modernization efforts that favor free market principles and
the adoption of advanced technologies. The government will have to open the
market to established incumbents that are well entrenched, as well as level
the playing field to enable bold start-ups to gain a foothold in the
provision of wireless access services," according to Baugh.
However, given the potential for a highly politicized policy process, the
report concluded that China's WiMAX market for service and revenues is
expected to exhibit slow growth from 2007 to 2009 before growing more
robustly beginning in 2010. This is largely due to ecosystem development
that is restrained by the lack of spectrum allocations by the government.
The spectrum issue is expected to be resolved by the end of 2007; however,
actual allocations and peripheral issues are likely to delay the full and
quick penetration of WiMAX services and equipment over the next three
years.
"China WiMAX, Assessing Growth Potential in a Complex Market" is a
multi-client report now available from NSR. For additional information on
this report, including a full table of contents, list of figures and
executive summary, please visit www.nsr.com or call NSR at 617-576-5771.
About NSR
NSR is an international market research and consulting firm specializing in
satellite and wireless technology and applications. NSR primary areas of
expertise include emerging technology, IP applications, and broadcast
services. With extensive expertise in all regions and a number of
broadband sectors, NSR is a leading provider of in-depth market insight and
analyses.