Stratfor Forecasts Crisis and Conflict in Syria to Shape Second-Quarter Global Developments

Leading Global Intelligence and Advisory Firm Says Europe's Migrant Crisis, Turkey's Internal Struggles and Russian Efforts to Negotiate on Sanctions All Tie Back to Syria in Second Quarter of 2016

AUSTIN, TX--(Marketwired - March 29, 2016) - Crisis and conflict surrounding Syria will drive broader global developments in the months ahead, according to Stratfor, which just released its Second Quarter Forecast for 2016. The geopolitical intelligence and advisory firm says the protracted war in Syria remains the key to Europe's migrant crisis as well as a major complication in Turkey's internal struggles, and that Russia remains at the center of the conflict.

Russia, which recently ordered a drawdown of its forces form Syria, is looking ahead to July -- when European leaders vote on Russian sanctions, and NATO members discuss an expanded security footprint along Russia's western flank. Stratfor analysts note that what Moscow fails to achieve by bringing some of its troops home from Syria will prove far more interesting than what it actually will achieve as it tries to shape negotiations elsewhere.

"If anyone can turn a source of conflict into a source of leverage, it is Russia," says Stratfor Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Goujon. "Over the past quarter, Moscow demonstrated that it has the influence to both escalate and tamp down the level of violence in Syria, much like it can in eastern Ukraine."

Other key global developments Stratfor predicts for the second quarter of 2016 include:

  • A strengthening U.S. dollar will cause problems for China, leading to uncertainty that will in turn upset the U.S. economy.
  • The Islamic State's core territory in Syria and Iraq will continue to be degraded, which in turn will heighten the terrorist threat in other places.
  • The rise of the Islamic State in Libya will prompt an increase in foreign military involvement.
  • Global oil markets will remain oversupplied as Iranian output comes online.
  • The flow of migrants will be strong in Greece and increase in Italy.
  • The security situation in Afghanistan will deteriorate as the Taliban launches its spring offensive.

Stratfor's complete Second Quarter Forecast for 2016 -- along with its Annual Forecast for the year -- is now available at Past Stratfor forecasts have anticipated years in advance the Turkish resurgence, the U.S. rapprochement with Iran, the Chinese economic slowdown, Russia's resurgence in the former Soviet periphery and the political fragmentation in Europe.

About Stratfor

Stratfor is a geopolitical intelligence firm that provides strategic analysis and forecasting to individuals and organizations around the world. By placing global events in a geopolitical framework, we give readers a strategic advantage as they work to anticipate opportunities and better understand international developments.

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Joshua Cook
Stratfor Director of Public Relations

Stratfor 2016 Second-Quarter Forecast