REYKJAVIK, Iceland, Dec. 20, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Analytica Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for Iceland rose in November for the fourth month in a row – this time by 0.6 per cent. Also, the value for October was revised upwards. There are now indications that the current CLI rise represents the renewal of faster growth.
All six components rise on the previous month. The largest contributions are from a rise in the value of fish catches, merchandise imports and the debit card turnover. The long-term trend of some important CLI components remains strong. The main risk factors continue to include some external factors mainly in relation to the geopolitical situation.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica’s CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica’s CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For the month of November, four of the six underlying components rise year on year. However, all six components rise on the previous month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The value for November rises to 101.8 or by 0.6 per cent. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. May 2018. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long-term trend.
| Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2016-2017 | |||||||
| Change in % | Indication | ||||||
| Index | on month | YOY | for month | ||||
| 2016 | |||||||
| November | 100.4 | -0.3% | -0.4% | May 2017 | |||
| December | 100.1 | -0.4% | -0.9% | June | |||
| 2017 | |||||||
| January | 99.8 | -0.3% | -1.3% | July | |||
| February | 99.8 | 0.0% | -1.4% | August | |||
| March | 99.9 | 0.1% | -1.2% | Sept. | |||
| April | 99.7 | -0.2% | -1.3% | Oct. | |||
| May | 99.4 | -0.3% | -1.6% | Nov. | |||
| June | 99.1 | -0.3% | -1.9% | Dec. | |||
| July | 99.0 | -0.1% | -1.9% | Jan. 2018 | |||
| August | 99.5 | 0.5% | -1.5% | Feb. | |||
| September | 100.3 | 0.8% | -0.6% | March | |||
| October | 101.1 | 0.8% | 0.4% | April | |||
| November | 101.8 | 0.6% | 1.3% | May | |||
The December Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on Jan. 18-19, 2018.
Further information is provided by Analytica’s CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is