National Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA in November was 5.6% and is projected to be 5.8% in December 2023

WASHINGTON, Dec. 29, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- National constant-quality home prices in November 2023 were down 0.6% from a month ago but up 5.6% from a year ago (not seasonally adjusted), according to data from the American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Housing Center. Despite subdued demand and relatively high rates, the Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA bottomed out in April 2023 and is projected to be 5.8% in December 2023.

November YoY HPA varied significantly among the 60 largest metros (see #1 in graphic). It ranged from -3.8% in Austin (-6.9% inflation-adjusted) to 13.7% in Grand Rapids (+10.6% inflation-adjusted).

Home prices have now passed the peak levels reached in 2022 in 27 out of the 60 largest metros; with none of them is in the West (see #2 in graphic). Metros in the Midwest, which continue to be relatively affordable, lead the recovery.

Historically, low price tier HPA has outpaced HPAs for the upper price tiers. This trend continued in November, with the YoY HPA up 6.9% and 6.0% for the low price tier and high price tier, respectively.

Months’ supply stood at 4.3 months in November 2023, up from 4.0 months in October 2023 and 4.0 months in November 2019 (pre-pandemic). (See #3 in graphic). Low levels of supply continue to signal a strong seller’s market. The months’ supply for the low price tier came in at 2.7 months in November 2023, helping to explain the 6.9% YoY price growth for this tier.

The AEI Housing Center provides the most advanced and timely information on home prices available. Measures of home price appreciation like the Case Shiller index have months of lag. The Housing Center has published data for November 2023 and is able to accurately project December and January 2024 with Optimal Blue rate lock data as well.

National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index – November 2023

Media Contact Details:

Sissi Li
American Enterprise Institute Housing Center
Washington, DC

An infographic accompanying this announcement is available at:

Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index - November 2023