Seasonality pushes Texas new home sales lower, “Spring will see a rebound,” Ben Caballero says

HomesUSA.com reports “pace of sales mixed” as prices remain stable


DALLAS, Feb. 21, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Seasonality pushed Texas’ average new home sales lower in all four of its largest markets last month, according to the monthly Texas New Home Sales Report released today by HomesUSA.com and its CEO, Ben Caballero, the nation's top-ranked real estate agent. 

The HomesUSA.com New Home Sales Report uses Multiple Listing Service data – the most complete, current, and accurate information – from the Realtor Associations of North Texas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio.

In January, the 3-month average new home sales in Dallas-Ft. Worth, Houston, Austin and San Antonio combined show a of 5,119 sales versus 5,350 sales in December. In Houston, January new home were 1,850 versus 1,933 in December. In Dallas-Ft. Worth, January sales were 1,588 versus 1,657 in December. Austin posted January new home sales totaling 804 versus 852 in December, and San Antonio sales in January were 876 versus 908 in December.

Except for Dallas-Fort Worth, new home sales have remained relatively flat in the last eight months despite historical seasonal downward pressure. Because of the tight existing home inventory and a return to normal historical seasonal activity, “Spring will see a new home sales rebound in Texas,” said Caballero, America's No. 1-ranked real estate agent and CEO and founder of HomesUSA.com.

"January was a ‘steady as she goes’ month for Texas new home sales,” Caballero added, noting, “Because Texas is home to the largest new home markets in the nation, stability is a good thing. Our new home market in Texas remains healthy, and we should see it strengthening into the spring.”

According to the HomesUSA.com New Home Sales Index’s 3-month average, the supply-and-demand balance was evident in the Days on Market for new homes in Texas’ largest markets, which posted mixed results in January. For Texas, the average DOM was up slightly with January at 102.05 days versus 100.26 days in December.
        
The average 3-month new home prices in three of the four largest new home markets in Texas were stable in January. Home prices were up marginally month-over-month in Austin (+0.12%) and Houston (+0.20%). Prices were just slightly lower in Dallas-Ft. Worth (-0.37%) with the largest decline in San Antonio (-0.67%).

January’s 3-month average new home price in Austin was $492,633; in Dallas-Ft. Worth, it was $481,094; in Houston, it was $403,782; and in San Antonio, it was $347,854.

“Historically, prices increase during the first six to seven months of the year, and I do not expect 2024 to be any different,” Caballero said.

Pending sales are a market indicator and they rebounded in January, as the average 3-month pending sales were higher in the four largest Texas new home markets, totaling 5,834 versus 5,433 in December.

Active listings were flat in January, as the pace of new inventory slowed. The average 3-month active listings inventory for January in Texas’ four major new home markets was 29,480 versus 29,662 in December.

HomesUSA.com is sharing its New Home Sales Report and New Home Sales Index before the Commerce Department releases its nationwide New Residential Sales Report for January, set for Monday, February 26, 2024, at 10:00 am Eastern time.

The HomesUSA.com monthly report is based on closed sales recorded in MLSs by the 10th day of the following month. Sales reported by agents after the 10th of the month are not included. The report features 3-month and 12-month moving averages for six essential market data, including Days on Market, sales volume, sales prices, a sales-to-list price ratio, pending sales, and active listings. Caballero explained the 3-month moving average indices track market seasonality, while the 12-month moving average removes the seasonality and tracks the longer trend.

Days on Market – New Homes in Texas (Exclusive Data)
The HomesUSA.com New Home Sales Index showed the 3-month moving average of Days on Market decreased in two of the four major new home markets in January. In Dallas-Ft. Worth, the DOM decreased to 125 days versus 126.83 days in December. Houston’s DOM was 91.38 versus 86.60 days in December. In Austin, the DOM increased to 101.02 days versus 93.75 days in December. In San Antonio, the DOM was 85.18 days versus 87.69 days in December. Caballero points out that new homes have significantly higher Days on Market or DOM than existing homes because most are listed while under construction. (See Chart 1: Texas New Homes Days on Market)

Texas New Home Sales Data
Based on all local MLS data, which is the most reliable and current source of all home sales activity, total new home sales were lower last month, according to the 3-month moving average. In Dallas-Ft. Worth, new home sales were 1,588 versus 1,657 in December. In Houston, January’s total sales were lower at 1,850 versus 1,933 in December. Austin new home sales last month were relatively lower at 804 versus 852 in December. In San Antonio, new home sales in January were 876 versus 908 in December. (See Chart 2: Texas New Home Sales)

Texas New Home Prices
The average prices of new homes were stable in three of the four major new home markets last month. In Dallas-Ft. Worth, the 3-month moving average price for new homes in January was $481,094 from $482,875 in December. Austin's 3-month moving average price increased in January to $492,633 from $492,066 in December. In Houston, the average new home price in January was $403,782 versus $402,971 in December. San Antonio was the exception, as the average new home price in January dropped to $347,854 from $362,372 in December. (See Chart 3: Texas New Home Prices)

Texas Sales-to-List Price Ratio
Cumulative new home sales continue to stabilize near 100 percent of the asking price. The 3-month moving average of the sales-to-list price ratio for January was 97.40 versus 97.52 percent in December. Dallas-Ft. Worth’s ratio was 97.54 versus 97.61 percent in December. In Houston, the ratio was 97.86 versus 97.93 percent in December. In Austin, the sales-to-price ratio was 97.07 versus 97.35 percent in December. San Antonio's ratio in January was 96.54 versus 96.71 percent in December. (See Chart 4: Texas Sales-to-List Price Ratio)

Texas Pending New Homes Sales Data
Based on local MLS data, pending new home sales were higher in all four Texas major markets last month. Data shows pending sales in January were 5,834 versus 5,433 in December. In Dallas-Ft. Worth, pending new home sales last month were 2,068 versus 1,888 in December. In Houston, pending new home sales in January increased to 1,753 versus 1,692 in December. In Austin, pending new home sales in January were higher at 1,110 versus 1,066 in December. San Antonio also had an increase in pending sales last month at 904 versus 787 in December. (See Chart 5: Texas Pending New Home Sales)

Texas Active Listings for New Homes
Data from the four largest Texas MLSs also shows the 3-month moving average for active listings decreased in January to 29,480 versus 29,662 in December. Three of the four Texas major markets posted lower active listings in January. Dallas-Ft. Worth's active listings in January were 6,774 versus 6,908 in December. In Austin, active listings in January decreased to 5,561 from 5,591 in December. In San Antonio, active listings last month also decreased to 5,129 versus 5,229 in December. Houston was the anomaly, as active listings were higher last month at 12,016 versus 11,934 in December. (See Chart 6: Texas Active Listings and Chart A: 12-Month Moving Averages)

About the HomesUSA.com New Home Sales Index
The HomesUSA.com Index is reported as both a 3-month and 12-month moving average of the Days on Market (DOM) for new homes listed in the local Multiple Listing Services (MLSs) for Dallas-Ft. Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. Created by Ben Caballero, founder and CEO of HomesUSA.com, it is the first Days on Market index to track Texas new home market and includes homes listed while under construction.

*Note: Texas data denotes a combination of its four largest new home markets – Houston, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Austin and San Antonio, which comprises the vast majority of new home sales and MLS data statewide.

About Ben Caballero and HomesUSA.com®
Ben Caballero, founder and CEO of HomesUSA.com, is a three-time Guinness World Record title holder for ‘Most annual home sale transactions through MLS by an individual sell-side real estate agent – current.’ Ranked by REAL Trends as America’s top real estate agent for home sales since 2013, Ben is the most productive real estate agent in U.S. history. He is the only individual real estate agent to exceed $3 billion in residential sales transactions in a single year (2022); the first agent to exceed $2 billion (2018, 2019, 2020); and the first agent to exceed $1 billion (2015, 2016, 2017). An award-winning innovator and technology pioneer, Ben works with more than 60 home builders in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. His podcast series is available on iTunes and Google Podcasts. Learn more at HomesUSA.com |Twitter: @bcaballero - @HomesUSA | Facebook: /HomesUSAdotcom.

Note for journalists: You may contact Ben Caballero directly on his cell at (214) 616-9222 or by email at ben@homesusa.com.

REALTOR® is a federally registered collective membership mark which identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

Media Contact:
Kevin Hawkins
(206) 866-1220
kevin@wavgroup.com

Image: Ben Caballero (2023)
https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Ben_Caballero_1-scaled.jpg

Individual Chart images:

Chart 1: Texas New Homes Tracking – Days on Market – January 2024: https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Chart-1-Texas-New-Homes-Tracking-Days-on-Market.jpg

Chart 2: Texas New Home Sales Market – January 2024: https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Chart-2-Texas-New-Home-Sales-Market.jpg

Chart 3: Texas New Home Sales Prices Market – January 2024: https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Chart-3-Texas-New-Home-Sales-Prices-Market.jpg

Chart 4: Texas Sales-to-List-Price Ratio Market – January 2024: https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Chart-4-Texas-Sales-to-List-Price-Ratio-Market.jpg

Chart 5: Texas Pending New Home Sales Market – January 2024: https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Chart-5-Texas-Pending-New-Home-Sales-Market.jpg

Chart 6: Texas Active Listings for New Home Market – January 2024: https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Chart-6-Texas-Active-Listings-for-New-Homes-Market.jpg

Chart A: Texas 12-Month Moving Averages Market – January 2024: https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Chart-A-12MonthChart-DataOnly.jpg


Ben Caballero, founder and CEO of HomesUSA.com Chart 1: HomesUSA.com Texas New Home Sales Index – Days on Market (exclusive) Chart 2: Texas New Home Sales Chart-3-Texas-New-Home-Sales-Prices-Market Chart 4: Texas Sales-to-List-Price Ratio Chart 5: Texas Pending New Home Sales Chart 6: Texas Active Listings for New Home Sales (Inventory) Chart A: Texas 12-Month Moving Averages