New Zealand Telecoms Report 2024-2031: 5G Mobile Subscribers will Represent Nearly 80% of All Subscriptions by 2031, 4G will Represent about 18%, While 6G and 3G will Account for the 2% Remainder

Dublin, June 11, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "New Zealand Telecoms Industry Report: 2024-2031" has been added to's offering.

The New Zealand telecommunications industry is a stable mobile market with 3 network operators, a nationwide full-fibre wholesale broadband network and an overall market underpinned by strong economic fundamentals.

Key developments covered in the New Zealand Telecoms Industry Report:

  • Sale of towers of all three operators to pension funds
  • Acquisition of My Republic by 2degrees
  • Acquisition of Trustpower retail customer base by Mercury
  • Divestments of passive tower infrastructure by both Spark and Vodafone underway
  • UFB project completed and delivering word class broadband speeds nationwide

The report forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2024-31 period and fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration over the same period. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2005, sliding down every year since then.

The report forecasts 5G mobile subscribers will represent nearly 80% of all subscriptions by 2031, 4G will represent about 18% of all connections while 6G and 3G will account for the 2% remainder, while 2G and 3G networks will be switched off by 2025.

Mobile subscribers numbers and revenue are growing strongly and the back of population growth and the market shift to postpaid.

The overall telecoms market is expected to grow to NZD7.1 billion by to 2031 after a marked slow down in 2020 and 2021 due to legacy voice revenue pressure partially offset by mobile data growth and COVID travel restrictions.

Capex Investments

New Zealand is coming off a Capex hyper-cycle from a peak in 20219 down to NZD1.5 billion by 2022. The Capex to GDP ratio is now decreasing and is expected to remain at the same level through to 2031. Chorus is still investing heavily in fibre infrastructure until 2024 while Spark and Vodafone have more conservative investment profiles focusing mainly on 5G.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue

Over the last five years, the market shifted to postpaid as subscribers move to Pay Monthly offerings (SIM-only plans) with increased data allowances. Overall, the number of prepaid subscribers continued to decrease slightly. Mobile network operators are facing competitive pressure with the market shifting to unlimited voice and text and data allowance increasingly becoming the sole offering differentiator.

According to a benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. New Zealand has the highest pricing per GB and Kiwis downloaded the least amount of data over their mobile phones.

Broadband Subscribers - FTTH Push and Fixed Wireless

The Ultra-Fast Broadband Initiative is a New Zealand Government program of building fibre-to-the-home networks covering 87% of the population by the end of 2022, FTTP is now deployed to 1.8 million households and businesses in 412 cities and towns. It is a public-private partnership of the government with four companies with a total government investment of NZ$2.1 billion.

The broadband market is now experiencing low growth mostly driven by new premises construction in greenfield developments or urban redevelopments. The UFB government project reached over 1.8m premises and connected 71% of them or 1.3m premises.

Households growth and a reduction of the number of underserved premises, previously not able to connect now served by UFB2, will drive up the fixed-broadband subscribers.

Telecoms Infrastructure/5G/M&A/Infrastructure

Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.

  • In 2019, Morrisson & Co (Infratil) and Brookfield, both infrastructure funds, bought Vodafone NZ for NZ$3.4 billion (EV/EBITDA of .c7). Globally, many infrastructure funds are investing in mobile towers, FTTH, data centres, submarine cables while that trend is likely to continue over time with more proactive transactions. In 2023, Morrisson & Co (Infratil) purchased Brookfield's stake to reach full ownership.
  • In 2022, 2Degrees and Orcon (Vocus NZ) merged to form the third largest telecommunications provider, it is co-owned by Macquarie and Aware.
  • In just 12 months, all three operators sold their respective towers to pension funds.

The next wave of transactions is likely to continue being about "scale" among small ISPs and largely about infrastructure for Spark, Vodafone and 2degrees.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.Key Topics Covered:

1 Key Statistics
1.1 New Zealand's Population
1.2 New Zealand's Economy
1.3 New Zealand's GDP

2 Overall Telecommunications Market, 2017-2031
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2017-2023
2.3 Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2023-2031
2.4 Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2017-2031

3 Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1 Spark New Zealand Profile
3.2 One New Zealand Profile
3.3 2Degrees
3.4 Chorus Profile
3.5 Other Players Profile
3.5.1 Mercury

4 Mobile Market
4.1 New Zealand Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2017-2031
4.2 New Zealand Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2017-2031
4.3 Mobile Coverage
4.4 Spectrum Holdings
4.5 Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
4.6 Mobile Speed Tests
4.7 Internet of Things (IoT)

5 Broadband Market
5.1 New Zealand Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2017-2023
5.2 New Zealand Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031

6 Satellite Internet Connectivity
6.1 Comparing LEO, MEO, and GEO Satellite Orbits
6.2 Satellite Broadband Providers Operators, 2023
6.3 5G NTN: The Next Generation of Satellite Connectivity
6.4 Satellite Internet Market Analysis, 2023-2031
6.5 New Zealand Satellite Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031

7 Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
7.1 Fixed Digital Infrastructure
7.1.1 The Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB)
7.1.2 Submarine Cables

8 New Zealand Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
8.1 Small Tightly Held Tower Market
8.2 New Zealand Telecom Towers Market Forecast
8.3 Tower Density Benchmark
8.4 Telco Infrastructure Comparative

9 Thematics/Opportunities
9.1 Consolidation Opportunities
9.2 Diversification Opportunities
9.3 New Telecoms Operating Model
9.4 6G Developments

10 Telco Transaction Database

Companies Featured

  • 2degrees
  • Brookfield
  • Chorus
  • Connexa
  • Crown Fibre Holding
  • Crown Infrastructure Partner
  • Enable Networks
  • Fourtysouth
  • Infratil
  • Mercury
  • Northpower
  • One NZ
  • Snap
  • Spark
  • Telecom NZ
  • TelstraClear
  • Trustpower
  • Tuatahi First Fibre
  • Ultra-Fast Fibre
  • Vocus
  • Vodafone
  • WEL Networks

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