Dublin, Nov. 27, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Global (Q4 2025 Update)" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.
The Q4 2025 update lifts its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.20 percentage points from the Q3 2025 update, to 2.62%. The upgrade reflects a short-term boost from modest policy-driven demand and front-loaded spending in early 2025 as new measures took effect, alongside easing inflation and partial tariff rollbacks that reduced near-term challenges. Regionally, forecasts were nudged up across the board: the Americas by 0.27 percentage points, Asia Pacific by 0.20 percentage points, Europe by 0.12 percentage points, and MEA by 0.06 percentage points.
Global inflation is projected to ease to 5.33% in 2025, down from 5.78% in 2024. Europe's inflation is forecast to fall to 3.81% from 4.02% in 2024. In the Middle East and Africa, inflation is expected to decline sharply to 14.47% from 20.10%. The APAC region is projected to witness a slight decrease to 4.22% (from 4.24%). By contrast, inflation in the Americas is projected to increase to 4.43% in 2025, compared to 4.36% in 2024.
From the end of 2024 until October 2025, the US Federal Reserve cut the policy rate three times by a total of 75 basis points (bps). In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) initiated a series of rate cuts, reducing rates eight times since June 2024. The most recent cut occurred in June 2025, when the rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 2.15%. Several other countries also adjusted their rates from the beginning of 2025 to October 2025: China reduced its rate by 10 basis points, India by 100 basis points, Canada by 75 basis points, Russia by 450 basis points, South Korea by 50 basis points, and Australia by 75 basis points.
Supply chain strains intensified in mid 2025 as the New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index averaged 0.04 from April to September 2025, up from -0.21 in October 2024 to March 2025. Protectionist trade policies introduced under the Trump administration - notably tariffs on major partners - have raised input costs and strained trade ties, contributing to softer demand and higher prices across sectors. The construction and automotive industries have been especially affected, facing disrupted inputs, increased material costs, and slower order flows.
The WTO raised its 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4% (from -0.2%), while trimming 2026 to 0.5% (from 2.5%). World merchandise trade rose 4.9% year-on-year in H1 2025, driven by North American import frontloading, easing inflation and fiscal support, and higher demand for AI-related goods. Risks include elevated tariffs, policy uncertainty, falling frontloading, and weaker developed market demand into 2026.
Report Scope
- The analyst's Global Macroeconomic Outlook Report identifies, analyzes, and forecasts key development of the global economy. The report provides a 360-degree view of the economy which can be used as a strategic tool to understand market dynamics, business potential and direction of operations.
Reasons to Buy
- Comprehensive Insights: Offers a detailed analysis of global economic trends, including growth projections, inflation, and policy shifts across major regions and countries.
- Data-Driven Forecasts: Includes robust data on economic performance indicators, helping businesses and investors make informed decisions for 2024 and beyond.
- Regional Comparisons: Provides comparative analysis of economic prospects across the Americas, Europe, APAC, and MEA
- Expert Analysis: Features expert commentary on key factors shaping the global economy, such as geopolitical developments, trade dynamics, and fiscal policies.
Key Topics Covered:
- Foreword
- Executive Summary
- Key Developments - Global Economy
- Economic Growth Projections by Region - Q4 2025 Update
- Region-wise Economic Outlook
- Economic Growth Projections for 2025 Heat Map
- Asia-Pacific to Account for Around 58% of Global Growth in 2025
- Real GDP Growth Forecast Revision - Major Economies
- Inflation Exhibits a Declining Trend
- Policy Rate Trend in Major Economies
- Major Currencies (LCU Per $)
- Energy Price Trend
- Business and Consumer Sentiment Trend
- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Trend
- Global Trade Growth Forecast Revised Upward
- Trade Prospects Remain Uncertain
- Labor Market Outlook
- Global Tourism Mid-Year 2025: Resilience, Growth and Regional Divergence
- Trump's Tariff - Summary
- Trump's Tariff - Sector-wise
- Key Macroeconomic Indicators Outlook
- Global Economic Outlook and Regional Growth Projections
- Quarterly GDP Trend - Major Economies
- Inflation Rate Forecast
- Industrial Production Trend in Major Economies
- Labor Market Scenario and Forecast - Major Economies
- Unemployment Rate - Jan 2023 to September 2025 or Latest Available
- External Trade
- Public Finance
- Stock Market Trends
- Equity, M&A Deals, and Active Jobs by Sector
- Global Economic Outlook
- Appendix
For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/zgdmkf
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