Michigan Retailers' Sales Forecasts Rise

 | Source: Michigan Retailers Association Michigan Retailers Association

LANSING, MI--(Marketwire - July 25, 2007) - Michigan retailers' short-term sales forecasts inched up in June as they looked toward back-to-school shopping, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

"The retail industry appears cautiously optimistic about back-to-school sales. Slightly more retailers expect to do better than last year," said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO.

The Michigan Retail Index for June showed that 50 percent believe their sales will increase for July-September over the same period last year, while 22 percent believe their sales will decline and 25 percent expect no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 60.9, up from 59.1 in May and the highest since December 2006.

The gauge also showed that 45 percent increased sales in June over the same month last year, while 32 percent recorded declines and 23 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 52.1, down from 54.1 in May and the second best of 2007.

Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity for the overall industry, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.

East Michigan retailers led the state, with 50 percent boosting sales and 25 percent falling behind last year.

Electronics retailers led the industry, with75 percent reporting better June sales. General merchandise retailers followed with 67 percent.

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation's largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151. 

Michigan Retailers Association/Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Michigan Retail Index
June 2007 results
Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at
www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html


June Performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory,
prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate May results)

            % Increased  % Decreased  % No Change  Index*       Responses
Sales       45 (47)      32 (32)      23 (19)      52.1 (54.1)  136 (139)
Inventory   31 (27)      23 (30)      43 (39)      51.3 (46.5)  133 (136)
Prices      31 (37)       5  (6)      60 (52)      61.9 (64.4)  131 (135)
Promotions  28 (35)       6 (10)      63 (50)      60.4 (61.8)  133 (135)
Hiring      14 (11)      10  (8)      73 (74)      49.9 (46.6)  132 (132)


Outlook for Next 3 Months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory,
prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate May results)

            % Increased  % Decreased  % No Change  Index*       Responses
Sales       50 (46)      22 (22)      25 (30)      60.9 (59.1)  133 (139)
Inventory   31 (28)      29 (27)      37 (41)      46.8 (48.9)  133 (136)
Prices      32 (36)       7  (5)      57 (54)      61.7 (65.6)  131 (135)
Promotions  37 (45)       6  (3)      54 (47)      63.7 (70.9)  132 (135)
Hiring      12  (5)       9  (7)      73 (81)      48.0 (46.2)  129 (132)


June Sales Performance & Outlook
for Next 3 Months, by Region
(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in
parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months)

                % Increased     % Decreased     % No Change
North           44 (37)         25 (25)         31 (31)
West            41 (46)         45 (18)         14 (36)
Central         42 (46)         29 (16)         29 (33)
East            50 (62)         25 (25)         25 (13)
Southeast       50 (61)         32 (23)         18 (16)

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.

Contact Information: Contact: Tom Scott 517.372.5656

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