% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses Sales 35 (42) 47 (36) 16 (20) 46.5 (52.4) 99 (120) Inventory 32 (31) 33 (24) 30 (40) 44.6 (46.8) 96 (116) Prices 28 (29) 10 ( 6) 53 (59) 55.0 (59.5) 92 (115) Promotions 29 (24) 9 ( 8) 54 (62) 55.8 (54.7) 93 (115) Hiring 11 (12) 16 ( 7) 66 (77) 45.0 (50.5) 94 (118)Outlook for Next 3 Months Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago (numbers in parentheses indicate August results)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses Sales 52 (54) 27 (18) 17 (24) 62.2 (65.2) 97 (118) Inventory 31 (38) 31 (22) 31 (32) 51.8 (52.5) 94 (113) Prices 29 (32) 8 ( 7) 53 (53) 56.9 (59.2) 91 (113) Promotions 41 (44) 9 ( 7) 41 (44) 59.7 (62.9) 92 (116) Hiring 10 (15) 16 ( 9) 63 (70) 41.6 (49.8) 90 (115)September Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region (the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change North 35 (35) 59 (35) 6 (18) West 47 (53) 35 (29) 18 (18) Central 18 (53) 53 (35) 23 (12) East 37 (37) 50 (25) 13 (38) Southeast 36 (61) 50 (19) 14 (17)Question of the Month What is your current expectation for your percentage sales growth over last year for the holiday season? Average: 2.2% *Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.
Michigan Retailers Holiday Sales Forecasts/Results Season Pre-season forecast Post-season result % members average % % members average % expecting sales change achieving sales change sales increase sales increase 2007 52 + 2.2 2006 50 + 4.5 39 * 2005 51 + 5 39 -1.9 2004 63 + 7 37 0.89 2003 67 + 5 45 0.3 2002 57 + 4 28 -3.2 2001 49 + 6 45 3.3 2000 62 + 9 25 0.0 1999 75 +11 56 + 5.9 1998 74 +10 62 + 8.2 1997 74 +12 63 + 8.1 1996 75 +13 46 + 5.4 1995 78 +12 42 + 1.9 1994 78 +11 68 +12.0Source: Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. *2006: 23.1% greater than 5% sales gain; 15.9% less than or equal to 5% gain; 10.4% no change; 16.5% less than or equal to 5% loss; 34.1% greater than 5% loss.
Contact Information: Contact: Tom Scott 517.372.5656