Central government payments in January gave a surplus of SEK 25.0 billion. Of this SEK 23.9 billion is due to repo transactions by government agencies* with corresponding deposits in accounts at the Debt Office, which we had not expected. Excluding repo transactions by government agencies the surplus was SEK 1.1 billion. The Debt Office's forecast was a surplus of SEK 11.5 billion.
The deviation between the outcome, excluding repo transactions of government agencies, and our forecast was SEK 10.4 billion. Approximately SEK 5 billion is explained by lower tax revenue and SEK 5 billion by higher disbursements. We assess that the lower tax revenue is explained by normal variation between months of tax re-imbursements. Among disbursements the deviation was largest for the Swedish Social Insurance Agency due to a payment adjustment of individual pension contribution between the AP-funds and the government. Additionally disbursements from a few other government agencies were higher than expected.
Interest payments on central government debt were SEK 4.2 billion, which was SEK 0.2 billion lower than expected.
The surplus for the twelve-month period up to the end of January amounted to SEK 119 billion.
The outcome for February 2008 will be published at 9.30 am on 7 March 2008.
A new revised forecast for 2008 and our first forecast for 2009 will be published on 27 February 2008.
Further information can be obtained from:
Tord Arvidsson, phone +46 8 613 47 53
* Repo transactions by government agencies mean that they sell government securities with a repurchase agreement. The payment of the repos must be deposited in an account at the Debt Office. If the total volume of outstanding repos change during the month compared to the previous turn of the month it will affect the outcome of the borrowing requirement. We make forecasts of the repo transactions on the basis of the information we receive from the government agencies. However, the forecast are very uncertain since the government agencies may alter their plans on a short notice.
