-- Sharply lower gasoline prices. Current prices are far less than last
November's $3.19 per-gallon average and this year's peak above $4.
-- Attractive promotions. The season is already seeing discounts of 50
percent and more.
-- 45 percent of Michigan retailers say they have added lower-priced
merchandise to accommodate financially strapped shoppers.
The October Michigan Retail Index survey, a joint project of MRA and the
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, found that 29 percent of retailers
increased sales over the same month last year, while 58 percent recorded
declines and 13 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally
adjusted performance index of 34.9, down from 40.7 in September.
Thirty-three percent of retailers said they expect higher sales during
November - January over the same period last year, while 42 percent project
a decrease and 25 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted
outlook index at 45.1, down from 46.3 in September.
The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in
Michigan and the nation's largest state trade association of general
merchandise retailers.
Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
Michigan Retail Index
October 2008 results
Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at
www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html
October Performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory,
prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate September results)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 29 (28) 58 (59) 13 (13) 34.9 (40.7) 162 (124)
Inventory 29 (28) 40 (41) 31 (31) 40.9 (42.8) 161 (123)
Prices 41 (47) 13 (10) 46 (43) 63.1 (69.6) 162 (123)
Promotions 33 (34) 10 (14) 57 (52) 58.7 (60.9) 162 (123)
Hiring 6 (6) 29 (26) 65 (68) 37.5 (41.1) 161 (121)
Outlook for Next 3 Months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory,
prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate September results)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 33 (37) 42 (45) 25 (18) 45.1 (46.3) 163 (124)
Inventory 20 (22) 48 (44) 32 (34) 40.4 (40.8) 164 (123)
Prices 34 (47) 11 (10) 55 (43) 59.6 (70.2) 164 (122)
Promotions 48 (52) 9 (10) 43 (38) 65.1 (69.3) 162 (123)
Hiring 5 (10) 24 (18) 71 (72) 40.5 (45.7) 164 (120)
October Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region
(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in
parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months.)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change
North 36 (18) 58 (64) 6 (18)
West 29 (45) 51 (31) 20 (24)
Central 29 (38) 62 (33) 9 (29)
East 26 (20) 47 (40) 27 (40)
Southeast 26 (36) 64 (40) 10 (24)
Question of the Month
Relative to last year, when are you planning to start your holiday
promotions?
Earlier Later Same 30.9% 3.1% 66%*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.
Contact Information: Contact: Tom Scott 517.372.5656