-- Sharply lower gasoline prices. Current prices are far less than last November's $3.19 per-gallon average and this year's peak above $4. -- Attractive promotions. The season is already seeing discounts of 50 percent and more. -- 45 percent of Michigan retailers say they have added lower-priced merchandise to accommodate financially strapped shoppers.The October Michigan Retail Index survey, a joint project of MRA and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, found that 29 percent of retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 58 percent recorded declines and 13 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 34.9, down from 40.7 in September. Thirty-three percent of retailers said they expect higher sales during November - January over the same period last year, while 42 percent project a decrease and 25 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted outlook index at 45.1, down from 46.3 in September. The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation's largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151. Michigan Retail Index October 2008 results Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html October Performance Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago (numbers in parentheses indicate September results)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses Sales 29 (28) 58 (59) 13 (13) 34.9 (40.7) 162 (124) Inventory 29 (28) 40 (41) 31 (31) 40.9 (42.8) 161 (123) Prices 41 (47) 13 (10) 46 (43) 63.1 (69.6) 162 (123) Promotions 33 (34) 10 (14) 57 (52) 58.7 (60.9) 162 (123) Hiring 6 (6) 29 (26) 65 (68) 37.5 (41.1) 161 (121)Outlook for Next 3 Months Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago (numbers in parentheses indicate September results)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses Sales 33 (37) 42 (45) 25 (18) 45.1 (46.3) 163 (124) Inventory 20 (22) 48 (44) 32 (34) 40.4 (40.8) 164 (123) Prices 34 (47) 11 (10) 55 (43) 59.6 (70.2) 164 (122) Promotions 48 (52) 9 (10) 43 (38) 65.1 (69.3) 162 (123) Hiring 5 (10) 24 (18) 71 (72) 40.5 (45.7) 164 (120)October Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region (the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months.)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change North 36 (18) 58 (64) 6 (18) West 29 (45) 51 (31) 20 (24) Central 29 (38) 62 (33) 9 (29) East 26 (20) 47 (40) 27 (40) Southeast 26 (36) 64 (40) 10 (24)Question of the Month Relative to last year, when are you planning to start your holiday promotions?
Earlier Later Same 30.9% 3.1% 66%*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.
Contact Information: Contact: Tom Scott 517.372.5656