-- Oil prices are a key determinant of adoption of electric vehicles. HEVs are the only winner if oil prices hold steady at around $70/bbl. But regardless of oil prices, sales of these vehicles should reach roughly 3 million units annually by 2020. PHEVs, by contrast, will require oil prices around $200/bbl to achieve a similar level of success, and EV sales will be a factor of ten smaller, even in this scenario. -- Geography and subsidies figure prominently in the adoption of PHEVs and EVs. With oil at $200/bbl, light PHEVs could be the best-selling electric vehicle in the U.S. by 2020, with over one million units sold. At those oil prices, Japan could generate the biggest demand for electric vehicles, due to the country's high gasoline prices and generous government subsidies. Meanwhile, a lack of subsidies in Western Europe and China spells poor adoption rates in those markets for either class of electric vehicle. -- Regardless of the scenario, Li-ion battery technology is a clear winner. Even relatively modest success for the PHEV and EV market will be an enormous boon for the global battery market. Costs for automotive Li-ion cells will drop from over $720/kWh today to between $405/kWh and $445/kWh in 2020 depending on oil prices. Moreover, sales of Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles in 2020 range from around $510 million at $70/bbl, to over $9 billion at $200/bbl. The market for NiMH batteries for HEVs, meanwhile, changes little in any oil price scenario, ranging between $1.3 billion and $1.6 billion in 2020."Unplugging the Hype around Electric Vehicles" is part of the Lux Alternative Power and Energy Storage Intelligence service. Clients subscribing to this service receive continuous research on the industry, as well as market trends and forecasts, ongoing technology scouting reports, and proprietary data points in the weekly Lux Research Power Journal, and on-demand inquiry with Lux Research analysts. About Lux Research Lux Research provides strategic advice and on-going intelligence for emerging technologies. Leaders in business, finance and government rely on us to help them make informed strategic decisions. Through our unique research approach focused on primary research and our extensive global network, we deliver insight, connections and competitive advantage to our clients. Visit www.luxresearchinc.com for more information.
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