Michigan Retail Index September 2009 results Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html September Performance Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago (numbers in parentheses indicate August results) % Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses Sales 35 (35) 49 (53) 16 (12) 42.5 (46.6) 135 (130) Inventory 19 (19) 47 (47) 34 (34) 33.2 (36.2) 135 (129) Prices 19 (26) 13 (11) 68 (63) 52.8 (57.5) 134 (129) Promotions 36 (33) 7 (8) 57 (59) 62.5 (64.6) 135 (129) Hiring 7 (11) 17 (11) 76 (78) 44.6 (50.7) 135 (128) Outlook for Next 3 Months Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago (numbers in parentheses indicate August results) % Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses Sales 38 (43) 36 (35) 26 (22) 49.2 (53.5) 137 (130) Inventory 20 (22) 36 (39) 44 (39) 44.5 (41.9) 135 (128) Prices 21 (25) 9 (7) 70 (68) 55.5 (60.2) 135 (128) Promotions 48 (50) 5 (3) 47 (47) 67.6 (71.7) 135 (129) Hiring 11 (10) 14 (13) 75 (77) 48.1 (47.5) 132 (129) September Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region (the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months.) % Increased % Decreased % No Change North 41 (21) 45 (58) 14 (21) West 36 (53) 45 (19) 19 (28) Central 30 (45) 45 (20) 25 (35) East 45 (11) 44 (56) 11 (33) Southeast 32 (42) 57 (34) 11 (24)Question of the Month What is your current expectation for your percentage sales growth or decline over last year for the holiday season? Average -1% *Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.
Michigan Retailers Holiday Sales Forecasts/Results Season Pre-season forecast Post-season result % members average % % members average % expecting sales change achieving sales change sales increase sales increase 2009 38 -1.0 2008 37 -1.2 *** *** 2007 52 +2.2 ** ** 2006 50 +4.5 * * 2005 51 + 5 39 -1.9 2004 63 + 7 37 0.89 2003 67 + 5 45 0.3 2002 57 + 4 28 -3.2 2001 49 + 6 45 3.3 2000 62 + 9 25 0.0 1999 75 +11 56 + 5.9 1998 74 +10 62 + 8.2 1997 74 +12 63 + 8.1 1996 75 +13 46 + 5.4 1995 78 +12 42 + 1.9 1994 78 +11 68 +12.0 Source: Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. *** 2008: 27.4% greater than 5% sales gain; 17.2% less than or equal to 5% gain; 7.8% no change; 11.7% percent less than or equal to 5% loss; 35.9% greater than 5% loss. ** 2007: 19.7% greater than 5% sales gain; 14.8% less than or equal to 5% gain; 16.4% no change; 18 percent less than or equal to 5% loss; 31.1% greater than 5% loss. * 2006: 23.1% greater than 5% sales gain; 15.9% less than or equal to 5% gain; 10.4% no change; 16.5% less than or equal to 5% loss; 34.1% greater than 5% loss.
Contact Information: Contact: Tom Scott 517.372.5656