LANSING, MI--(Marketwire - May 26, 2010) - Michigan's retail industry continues to rebound from last year's weak performance, with April sales and short-term forecasts posting some of the strongest year-to-year gains in several years. That's according to the latest Michigan Retail Index survey, a joint project of Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
The sales component of the Index topped 50 (on a scale of 0-100) for the third month in a row -- indicating positive activity throughout the retail industry -- and reached its highest level (57.9) since March 2004.
Similarly, the short-term outlook component of the index reached its highest level (74.3) since October 2005.
"We continue to see positive momentum as consumers increase their spending across a broad range of merchandise," said MRA President and CEO James P. Hallan. "While the weakness of last year's numbers exaggerates the effect of this year's gains, there is little doubt the retail industry is rebounding from its prolonged slump."
The Michigan Retail Index survey for April found that 52 percent of retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 32 percent recorded declines and 16 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 57.9, up from 55.4 in March. A year ago, the index was 32.8 in April.
Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in positive activity.
Looking ahead, 60 percent of retailers expect sales during May-July to improve over the same period last year, while 12 percent project a decrease and 28 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted outlook index at 74.3, up from 62.4 in March. A year ago, the index was 52.2 in April.
Nationally, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that total April sales grew 8.8 percent over April 2009.
Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
Michigan Retail Index
April 2010 results
Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html
April Performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate February results)
| % Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | Index* | Responses | |
| Sales | 52 (48) | 32 (33) | 16 (19) | 57.9 (55.4) | 120 (140) |
| Inventory | 25 (27) | 24 (30) | 51 (43) | 48.8 (47.9) | 118 (137) |
| Prices | 15 (19) | 8 (11) | 77 (70) | 52.5 (54.7) | 119 (139) |
| Promotions | 32 (38) | 5 (6) | 63 (56) | 61.0 (65.7) | 117 (139) |
| Hiring | 14 (9) | 8 (10) | 78 (81) | 52.4 (48.8) | 118 (139) |
Outlook for Next 3 Months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate March results)
| % Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | Index* | Responses | |
| Sales | 60 (57) | 12 (20) | 28 (23) | 74.3 (62.4) | 119 (140) |
| Inventory | 37 (33) | 18 (16) | 45 (51) | 57.9 (54.6) | 118 (138) |
| Prices | 16 (24) | 6 (9) | 78 (67) | 55.6 (57.3) | 118 (138) |
| Promotions | 37 (45) | 4 (3) | 59 (52) | 67.7 (68.9) | 118 (138) |
| Hiring | 20 (16) | 4 (10) | 76 (74) | 56.6 (50.6) | 117 (132) |
April Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region
(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months.)
| % Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | |
| North | 38 (71) | 48 (10) | 14 (19) |
| West | 52 (63) | 29 (10) | 19 (27) |
| Central | 50 (50) | 17 (11) | 33 (39) |
| East | 30 (30) | 40 (20) | 30 (50) |
| Southeast | 65 (62) | 32 (15) | 3 (23) |
Question of the Month
How often do you communicate with customers or prospects via e-mail or social media?
| Daily | Weekly | Monthly | Infrequently | Never |
| 12% | 21% | 22% | 21% | 24% |
*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.
Contact Information:
Contact:
Tom Scott
517.372.5656