MONTRÉAL, QUÉBEC--(Marketwire - July 10, 2012) - In Quebec urban centres, the number of housing starts was trending at 40,200 units in June, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)(1) of housing starts. The standalone monthly SAAR was 42,800 units in June, up from 36,500 in May.
"Since the beginning of the year, starts of single detached homes have kept a stable rate. As far as multi-family starts are concerned, we still observe months for which activity is sustained. That said, we still believe that the pace of housing starts for apartments will settle at a lower rate than that observed last year, as a result of less robust economic conditions and a greater supply in this market segment, " explains Kevin Hughes, Regional Economist at CMHC for Quebec
For some markets, CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. Analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets in some situations, as housing starts are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets, which can be quite unpredictable from one month to the next.
Elsewhere in the country, June's seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased in Ontario, and in the Prairies. Urban starts increased in Atlantic Canada and in British Columbia. In each region, the decrease or increase was mainly due to changes in multiple starts.
(1) All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) - that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.
(2) CMHC estimates the level of starts in centres with a population of less than 10,000 for each of the three months of the quarter, at the beginning of each quarter. During the last month of the quarter, CMHC conducts the survey in these centres and revises the estimate.
As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.
This release is also available at www.cmhc.ca.
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A graph is available at the following address: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/qc-housing-eng.jpg
|Housing Starts, Actual and SAAR*|
|Canada, all areas||18,494||20,327||217,400||222,700|
|Canada, rural areas||2,250||2,183||22,900||23,200|
|Canada, urban centres**||16,244||18,144||194,500||199,500|
|Canada, singles, urban centres||7,287||6,923||67,700||67,500|
|Canada, multiples, urban centres||8,957||11,221||126,800||132,000|
|Atlantic region, urban centres||1,055||1,121||9,100||9,800|
|Quebec, urban centres||3,816||3,967||36,500||42,800|
|Ontario, urban centres||6,648||6,258||77,700||70,700|
|Prairie region, urban centres||2,866||3,843||45,200||42,100|
|British Columbia, urban centres||1,859||2,955||26,000||34,100|
*Seasonally adjusted annual rates
** Urban centres with a population of 10,000 and over.
Detailed data available upon request.