San Francisco County's Peak-Level Price Gains Fall Into Negative Territory in February
TRUCKEE, CA--(Marketwired - March 02, 2015) -
"The fact that we are now seeing quarterly declines in arguably one of the hottest markets in the country should be a stark reminder that the state of the overall housing market continues to be tenuous," says Alex Villacorta, Ph.D., vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital. "Buyers may have finally reached their limits in response to red-hot price increases, and as such are pulling out of the demand pool. If waning buyer demand continues through the first part of the year, we could see inventory increase, and in response falling home prices well into the second quarter.
"Extending beyond the Bay Area, all of the bottom performing 15 markets are either already showing negative quarterly returns or are within .5% of doing so," says Villacorta. "While not all markets are in bubble territory or on the precipice of declines, the market overall is at an inflection point. The aggressive run of price growth that started in 2013 has clearly subsided, and like all inflection points, market participants must be vigilant of local market conditions to ensure their interests aren't on the downside of any price swings back into negative territory. Given the lackluster start to key housing metrics this year, we continue to stand by our start of year predictions of 1-3% growth for the full year."
Graph 1. San Francisco County Falls Negative in February 2015. Source: Clear Capital®.
National and Regional Markets | |||
Market |
Qtr/Qtr | Yr/YR | Distressed Saturation |
National | 0.6% | 5.8% | 17.9% |
West | 1.0% | 7.6% | 13.2% |
South | 0.7% | 5.7% | 22.3% |
Northeast | 0.5% | 3.0% | 13.8% |
Midwest | 0.2% | 6.6% | 20.5% |
Chart 1: National and Regional Markets - Through February 2015. Source Clear Capital® | |||
Highest Performing Major Metro Markets | |||||||
Metropolitan Statistical Area | Qtr/Qtr | Yr/YR | Distressed Saturation |
||||
1 | PITTSBURGH, PA | 1.7% | 12.7% | 10.5% | |||
2 | FRESNO, CA | 1.6% | 7.8% | 20.1% | |||
3 | HOUSTON-BAYTOWN-SUGAR LAND, TX | 1.6% | 11.8% | 4.3% | |||
4 | DETROIT-WARREN-LIVONIA, MI | 1.5% | 16.5% | 20.0% | |||
5 | DENVER-AURORA, CO | 1.4% | 9.9% | 8.3% | |||
6 | NASHVILLE-DAVIDSON--MURFREESBORO, TN | 1.2% | 8.5% | 12.0% | |||
7 | MIAMI-FORT LAUDERDALE-MIAMI BEACH, FL | 1.2% | 10.6% | 28.4% | |||
8 | JACKSONVILLE, FL | 1.1% | 5.4% | 34.7% | |||
9 | SEATTLE-TACOMA-BELLEVUE, WA | 1.1% | 8.7% | 15.3% | |||
10 | CHICAGO-NAPERVILLE-JOLIET, IL-IN-WI | 1.0% | 7.7% | 30.4% | |||
11 | NEW YORK-NORTHERN NEW JERSEY-LONG ISLAND, NY-NJ-PA | 0.9% | 4.8% | 12.3% | |||
12 | DALLAS-FORT WORTH-ARLINGTON, TX | 0.9% | 7.8% | 3.6% | |||
13 | LOS ANGELES-LONG BEACH-SANTA ANA, CA | 0.9% | 8.5% | 11.0% | |||
14 | ATLANTA-SANDY SPRINGS-MARIETTA, GA | 0.9% | 10.2% | 19.5% | |||
15 | ST. LOUIS, MO-IL | 0.8% | 6.1% | 20.8% | |||
Chart 2: Highest Performing Major Metro Markets - Through February 2015. Source Clear Capital® | |||||||
Lowest Performing Major Metro Markets | |||||||
Metropolitan Statistical Area | Qtr/Qtr | Yr/YR | Distressed Saturation |
||||
1 | PROVIDENCE-NEW BEDFORD-FALL RIVER, RI-MA | -2.1% | -4.8% | 18.8% | |||
2 | HARTFORD-WEST HARTFORD-EAST HARTFORD, CT | -0.8% | -4.8% | 18.5% | |||
3 | NEW ORLEANS-METAIRIE-KENNER, LA | -0.7% | 5.5% | 18.8% | |||
4 | BALTIMORE-TOWSON, MD | -0.4% | -1.1% | 24.6% | |||
5 | BIRMINGHAM-HOOVER, AL | -0.4% | 1.1% | 16.8% | |||
6 | LAS VEGAS-PARADISE, NV | -0.4% | 5.2% | 21.5% | |||
7 | HONOLULU, HI | 0.1% | 2.1% | 7.2% | |||
8 | ROCHESTER, NY | 0.2% | 0.6% | 10.0% | |||
9 | VIRGINIA BEACH-NORFOLK-NEWPORT NEWS, VA-NC | 0.2% | 1.6% | 22.3% | |||
10 | WASHINGTON-ARLINGTON-ALEXANDRIA, DC-VA-MD-WV | 0.2% | 2.9% | 15.5% | |||
11 | BOSTON-CAMBRIDGE-QUINCY, MA-NH | 0.2% | 3.6% | 9.3% | |||
12 | TUCSON, AZ | 0.3% | 4.2% | 19.4% | |||
13 | MILWAUKEE-WAUKESHA-WEST ALLIS, WI | 0.3% | 5.7% | 19.1% | |||
14 | DAYTON, OH | 0.3% | 8.6% | 21.9% | |||
15 | SAN JOSE-SUNNYVALE-SANTA CLARA, CA | 0.4% | 8.0% | 5.5% | |||
Chart 3: Lowest Performing Major Metro Markets - Through February 2015. Source Clear Capital® |
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