Growth Driven by More Than One Billion New Internet Users and 10 Billion New Devices and Connections Over the Next Five Years
SAN JOSE, CA--(Marketwired - Jun 7, 2016) - Cisco (
Advancements in the Internet of Things (IoT) are continuing to drive IP traffic and tangible growth in the market. Applications such as video surveillance, smart meters, digital health monitors and a host of other M2M services are creating new network requirements and incremental traffic increases. Globally, M2M connections are calculated to grow nearly three-fold from 4.9 billion in 2015 to 12.2 billion by 2020, representing nearly half (46 percent) of total connected devices. The connected health consumer segment will have the fastest growth (five-fold) of M2M connections from 2015 (144 million) to 2020 (729 million). The connected home segment will have the largest volume of M2M connections over the forecast period with 2.4 billion in 2015, growing to 5.8 billion by 2020 -- nearly half of all M2M connections.
Video services and content continue to be the dominant leader compared with all other applications. Internet video will account for 79 percent of global Internet traffic by 2020 -- up from 63 percent in 2015. The world will reach three trillion Internet video minutes per month by 2020, which is five million years of video per month, or about one million video minutes every second. HD and Ultra HD Internet video will make up 82 percent of Internet video traffic by 2020 -- up from 53 percent in 2015.
With the growing dependence on mobile and fixed broadband networks, security concerns are increasingly becoming top of mind for service providers, governments, businesses and consumers. For the first time in this forecast, Cisco collaborated with Arbor Networks to help quantify the current and future threats of DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service) attacks. DDoS incidents can paralyze networks by flooding servers and network devices with traffic from multiple IP sources. The new DDoS analysis suggests that these types of breaches can represent up to 10 percent of a country's total Internet traffic while they are occurring. Over the next five years, DDoS attacks are projected to increase from 6.6 million to 17 million attacks. These initial findings underscore the need for more comprehensive security measures to protect data and reduce network exposure to such risks.
"The digital transformation is happening now for billions of consumers and businesses users across the globe," said Doug Webster, vice president of service provider marketing, Cisco. "Innovation is imperative for Cisco and its service provider customers to deliver scalable, secure, high-quality services and experiences over all types of broadband network infrastructures."
Key Findings & Milestones from Global Traffic Projections and Service Adoption Trends
1.) Stable growth in IP and Internet Traffic
Regional IP Traffic Growth Details
2.) IPv6 Adoption Supports Global Digitization
3.) Fixed Broadband Speeds Nearly Double
4.) Smartphone Traffic Will Surpass PC Traffic
5.) Video Continues to Dominate Internet Traffic (with New Emerging Trends)
6.) Service Adoption Trends: Residential, Consumer Mobile and Business
7.) Global Wi-Fi Expansion
8.) Consumer and Business Users Prefer Mobile Over Fixed Networks
Cisco VNI Methodology
The Cisco VNI™ Global IP Traffic and Service Adoption Forecasts for 2015 to 2020 rely upon independent analyst forecasts and real-world network usage data. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco's own estimates for global IP traffic and service adoption. A detailed methodology description is included in the complete report. Over its 11-year history, Cisco® VNI research has become a highly regarded measure of the Internet's growth. National governments, network regulators, academic researchers, telecommunications companies, technology experts and industry/business press and analysts rely on the annual study to help plan for the digital future.
Cisco VNI Global Traffic Forecast Update Webcast
Cisco invites press, analysts and bloggers to attend a webcast featuring the Cisco VNI team reviewing the global impact of traffic growth for service providers and their consumer and business subscribers. The session is scheduled for Tuesday, June 14 at 8:00 a.m. (PDT) and can be accessed via the Cisco Knowledge Network registration site.
Additional Supporting Resources
Cisco also welcomes press, analysts, bloggers, service providers, regulators and other interested parties to use and reference our research with proper attribution, such as "Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index Complete Forecast Update, 2015-2020."
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