Analysis on Australia's Telecommunications Industry, 2019-2023

Dublin, Nov. 26, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Australia - Telecommunications Industry Report - Revenue Analysis & Forecasts, 2019-2023" report has been added to's offering.

Australian Telecommunications Market at a Glance

Australia has one of the most competitive and mature telecommunications markets in the world. The publisher forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2019-2023 period while fixed broadband subscribers also expected to grow at a slightly lower average rate over the same period. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2000 to an all-time low in 2019.

The publisher forecasts the overall telecoms market is expected to decline until 2020 as NBN subscriber payments to Telstra will decrease gradually as all Telstra's copper and HFC services are migrated onto the NBN and market growth will resume from 2022 onwards.

Telstra's share of the telecommunications revenue pie has been declining over the last 5 years and its EBITDA share is declining even faster as Telstra's dominance in the fixed-line market is challenged with the migration onto the NBN.

Capex Investments

The capital expenditure (Capex) from telecommunications operators is coming off from an all-time peak between 2017 to 2019 due to the NBN investments in upgrading Australia's fixed broadband infrastructure. The publisher expects Capex investments to remain sustained to accommodate for data usage growth, mobile coverage expansion and capacity improvements.

NBN expects a steady Capex spend from 2021 which excludes any further network upgrade to full-fibre still pending for nearly 80% of premises. Instead, NBN will be required to continually invest in HFC and fixed wireless to increase capacity and accommodate more customers and higher data usage.

Mobile Subscribers & Revenue

The mobile subscriber market increased between 2014 and mid-2019 with Telstra and Optus growing their postpaid subscriber base and Telstra also increasing its MVNO and IoT subscribers significantly over the same period 2014-2019 period. The publisher estimates the Australian mobile subscribers will increase on the back of population growth and Internet of Things subscribers take-up.

Mobile network operators are facing competitive pressure with the market shifting to unlimited voice and text and data allowance as the sole offering differentiator. Operators are also bundling mobile plans with content offerings such as sport, music and video streaming.

Australia is now the only country with a higher mobile speed than fixed speed.

Broadband Subscribers & The NBN

The publisher estimates the broadband subscribers growth will be sustained by household growth and a reduction of the number of underserved premises previously not able to connect now served by the Internet but now served by the NBN.

The NBN project remains a politically contentious issue for the country. The NBN has failed to address a flawed pricing structure, including a contentious usage charge, resulting in high pricing and is a wholesale failure to deliver affordable gigabit speed in comparison to countries such as New Zealand or Singapore who launched national broadband plans at a similar time. For the third year in a row, NBN also shifted its forecasted positive cash flow position to 2023 after increasing its forecast Capex spend.

By 2023, the publisher forecasts most subscribers migrated to NBN broadband services with a few remaining ADSL services in fixed wireless and satellites services and a number of fibre premises provided by greenfield operators and in-fill operators supplying wholesale services on the same terms as NBN. Opticomm, Uniti, Telstra with its legacy fibre Velocity estates and TPG are sharing the non-NBN market.

NBN Enterprise Products

The NBN enterprise product rollout strategy is creating a lot of industry debates. On one hand, the NBN embarked on a strategy targeting high ARPU enterprise customers investing in a dedicated team reporting to NBN's CEO while the industry is arguing that NBN's push in overbuilding existing fibre infrastructure - in some instances joining 6 other fibre providers competing to offer services in the same Melbourne CDB building - is not in its remit and capital investments should be directed to upgrade underserved areas or residential services in FTTN or HFC areas with poor speeds.

On the other hand, the NBN product service is also opening up new opportunities in areas where enterprise fibre services were not present prior to the NBN investment. This, in turn, is creating opportunities for smaller specialist business ISPs to broaden their footprint and offerings and address the small and medium market segment that is largely overlooked by the large operators such as Telstra, Optus, TPG and Vocus.

Thematics - 5G / NBN / M&A

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

With 5G a reality now in Australia, telco operators can now do an arbitrage of NBN speeds in areas where the copper lines are very long or in poor health and thus offer a faster service over 5G than NBN at an equivalent price for some segments of the market and some geographies.

This report shows subdued growth due to ARPU pressure compounded by margin pressure in the fixed broadband market is pushing telcos to look for outside opportunities to increase scale. The publisher expects another wave of consolidation in Australia, similar to the 2010-2015 period, post-NBN rollout as margins get squeezed further. Smaller NBN resellers will struggle to compete and sell-out to larger operators. Some market players outside the telco market are seeking growth by exploring ways to increase their scope of products and services offerings. The report outlines examples of some newcomers branching out by reselling broadband access services as a churn reduction strategy and increase consumers' share of wallet.

Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

The publisher also outlines select telecommunications transactions over the last 5 years. The last 3 years saw limited deal activity with most deals done by smaller telcos rolling up smaller players and increasing regional footprint and scale, while large consolidation deals happened between 2010 and 2016. More deals are likely to be on the cards over the next 3 years.

This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Australian telecommunications industry, including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends and also features the following:

  • Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
  • Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Spectrum Holdings
  • IoT Market Overview
  • Fixed Broadband Market: NBN, FTTP, HFC, FTTN and FTTC
  • Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • National Broadband Network Detailed Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G and NBN
  • Telecommunications Infrastructure Review
  • Telecommunications Transaction Database

Key Benefits of Buying This Report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

Companies Mentioned

  • AGL
  • Aussie Broadband
  • Fetch TV
  • Foxtel
  • NBN
  • Optus
  • Superloop
  • Telstra
  • TPG
  • Uniti Group
  • Vodafone
  • Vocus

Key Topics Covered

1 Key Statistics
1.1 Australia's Population
1.2 Australia's Households
1.3 Australia's GDP

2 Overall Telecommunications Market, 2014-2023
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2014-2019
2.3 Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2018-2023
2.4 Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2014-2025
2.4.1 Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2018
2.4.2 Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2018-2025

3 Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1 Telstra Profile
3.1.1 Telstra Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.1.2 Telstra InfraCo
3.2 Optus Profile
3.2.1 Optus Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.3 Vodafone Profile
3.3.1 Vodafone Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.4 TPG Profile
3.4.1 TPG Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.5 Vocus Profile
3.5.1 Vocus Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.6 Other Players Profile
3.6.1 Superloop
3.6.1 Uniti
3.6.2 Aussie Broadband

4 Mobile market
4.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2023
4.1.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
4.1.2 Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2019
4.1.3 Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2023
4.2 Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-2023
4.2.1 Historical Mobile Revenue, 2014-2018
4.2.2 Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2018-2023
4.2.3 Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2019
4.3 Mobile Coverage
4.4 Spectrum Holdings
4.4.1 Historical of Spectrum Auctions and Costs
4.4.2 Upcoming 5G Auctions
4.4.3 Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
4.5 Mobile Download Data Trends
4.6 Mobile Speed Tests
4.6.1 Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
4.6.2 OpenSignal
4.7 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO)
4.8 Internet of Things (IoT)

5 Broadband Market
5.1 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
5.2 Fixed Download Data Trends
5.3 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2023

6 National Broadband Network
6.1 Overview of the National Broadband Network
6.2 NBN Scope
6.2.1 Plans and Completion Dates
6.2.2 Legislative Framework for the NBN
6.2.3 Regulatory Framework
6.2.4 Wholesale Only & Uniform Pricing
6.3 NBN Industry Implications
6.4 NBN Implementation
6.5 NBN Financials
6.5.1 NBN Corporate Plan Review 2020-2023
6.6 NBN Build
6.6.1 NBN Speeds
6.6.1 NBN Speeds Mix Compared to New Zealand
6.7 NBN Enterprise Product Threat and Opportunity

7 Thematics / Opportunities
7.1 Facing Off Growth Saturation
7.1.1 Going for Scale
7.1.2 Going for Share of Wallet
7.1.3 The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
7.2 5G versus NBN
7.2.1 5G Overview
7.2.2 $50bn Later and Australia is Still a Broadband Backwater
7.2.3 Fixed Broadband Networks Doing the Heavy Lifting

8 Telco Transaction Database

9 Methodology

List of Figures
Figure 1: Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Australia
Figure 2: Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2018
Figure 3: Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2018
Figure 4: Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share, 2018
Figure 5: Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2025
Figure 6: Revenue and EBITDA Mix: FY19
Figure 7: Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2018
Figure 8: Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2023
Figure 9: Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2018-2023
Figure 10:Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2010-2019
Figure 11: Ookla Mobile Speedtest Ranking Comparison
Figure 12: MVNO Share of the Mobile Market, 1H19
Figure 13: MVNO Subscribers (k), 2014-2019
Figure 14: Spectrum available for IoT in Australia
Figure 15: Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
Figure 16: Fixed Broadband Monthly Download Data, 2008-2019
Figure 17: Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2023
Figure 18: NBN Architecture Overview
Figure 19: NBN Corporate Plan Financials, 2018-2023
Figure 20: NBN Corporate Plans (CP) Cash Flow Projections Comparison
Figure 21: NBN Subscribers
Figure 22: Broadband Migration to NBN Half Way
Figure 23: NBN homes Passed by Technology Forecast (k)
Figure 24: NBN Services by Speed
Figure 25: UFB Services by Speed
Figure 26: 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 27: Ookla Speed Test Results (Mbps): September 2019
Figure 28: Volume of Data Downloaded (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019
Figure 29: Wireless-Only Homes, 2014-2019

List of Tables
Table 1: Australia: Key Statistics
Table 2: Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators
Table 3: Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2019-2023
Table 4: Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2018
Table 5: Historical Telstra Revenue & EBITDA, 2014-2018
Table 6: Telstra InfraCo Asset Portfolio, 2018-2020
Table 7: Optus Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2018
Table 8: Vodafone Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2018
Table 9: TPG Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2018
Table 10: Vocus Revenue and EBITDA, 2014-2018
Table 11: Superloop Revenue Segments
Table 12: Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2014-2019
Table 13: Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2019-2023
Table 14: Historical Mobile ARPU, 2014-2019
Table 15: Mobile Coverage & Reach
Table 16: Historical of Spectrum Auctions and Costs
Table 17: Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (Mhz)
Table 18: Examples of MVNOs and their Wholesale Providers
Table 19: Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2014-2019
Table 20: Historical Broadband ARPU, 2014-2019
Table 21: NBN Technology Mix
Table 22: Telstra Estimated EBITDA Margin
Table 23: Optus Estimated EBITDA Margin
Table 24: Telstra, Optus, Vodafone and TPG Telco Infrastructure Landscape
Table 25: Vocus, Superloop, Axicom and NBN Telco Infrastructure Landscape
Table 26: Technology Specifications
Table 27: Volume of Data Downloaded Mix (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019
Table 28: Telco Transaction Database, 2015-2019

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