NEW YORK, July 09, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Aviation Week Network’s CAPA – Centre for Aviation, a leading provider of independent aviation market intelligence, released its U.S Air Capacity Projection Model. The Model shows that even with a slight uptick in air travel demand and airlines adding more near-term capacity than expected, the surge of COVID-19 will provoke a slowing in capacity growth.
The new CAPA modelling projects domestic U.S. seat capacity to be down by 60% year-over-year by the middle of August -- the summer peak -- and down by almost half of last year’s level of capacity by Thanksgiving in November, but even this level of production could be hampered by the rampant spread of the virus in the U.S.
“The outlook for U.S. airline capacity beyond the summer peak is highly uncertain. If COVID-19 cases continue to surge as they have over the past week, the beginnings of the recovery could fade away,” says Peter Harbison, CAPA Chairman Emeritus. “As a consequence, U.S. airline revenues will remain depressed for the foreseeable future. That dire scenario is forcing U.S. airlines to amass huge levels of debt to cover continuing high cash burn. Given what is now happening on the health front, the next two weeks will be a critical period for U.S. airline recovery.”
The details are contained in CAPA’s new U.S. Air Capacity Projection Model, which provides a breakdown of the nation’s domestic and international outlook for seat capacity powered by OAG – as well as each city and route pair – based on the 2019 actuals.
Combined with government statements, airline network announcements and capacity projections, the model provides a robust and granular guide for future air capacity projection. Using assumptions around 6 key phases – Zero/Grounded, Skeleton, Acutely Restricted, Basic, Restrained and Standard – users can track the pace of recovery in their relevant market.
Apart from the U.S., CAPA also has Models available for Australia, New Zealand, China, the UK, Germany and France, with several other of the largest 20 aviation markets globally, in the pipeline for release over the coming months.
To read CAPA’s latest analysis on U.S. air capacity click here, or to request a demonstration of the Model click here or contact membership@centreforaviation.com
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