Global Fertilizer Market: Prices to Continue Rising Next Year - IndexBox

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Fertilizer prices are soaring due to a supply shortage caused by lower output in EU countries. Rising gas costs shape the growth because natural gas accounts for up to 80% of variable costs in nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing. Urea prices spiked exceptionally high to $900 per tonne in November 2021, gaining 30% against the previous month. Phosphate rock price rose by 4%, while diammonium phosphate and triple superphosphate were both up by 8%. Next year, fertilizer prices are projected to climb further due to a continued shortage in supply, but if costs for natural gas maintain their downward trend, they will hold the price increases back.

LOS ANGELES, Dec. 20, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Fertilizer prices continue rising, according to a recent report by a market research firm IndexBox. Data from the World Bank shows the urea price shot upward by 30% in November compared to the previous month, reaching $900 per tonne. This is already the second significant gain seen this year. Phosphate rock has also become more expensive by +4% up to $153 per tonne, while diammonium phosphate and triple superphosphate each increased by +8% to $727 and $665 per tonne, respectively.

The key factors driving prices up are a supply shortage on the global fertilizer market and the growing costs of natural gas, which account for up to 80% of variable costs in producing nitrogen fertilizers. Faced with more expensive energy resources, many European producers had to stop production as they couldn’t compete with counterparts in Russia, countries in the Persian Gulf and northern Africa. As a result, the global supply of fertilizer decreased, which led to subsequent price increases.

According to the World Bank, in November, the prices for natural gas in the U.S. decreased by -8% to $5.02 per MMBtu, and by -11% in Europe to $27.6 per MMBtu, but despite that, they are still at record highs. If natural gas costs decline, it may reduce the rate of fertilizer price increases in the upcoming months. However, this will not eliminate the price rally as there will still be a shortage in supply. 

Global Fertilizer Exports by Country

In 2020, global fertilizer exports amounted to 204M tonnes, increasing by 2% from the previous year's figure. In value terms, exports dropped to $52.7B, IndexBox estimates.

The largest fertilizer supplying countries worldwide were Russia ($7B), China ($6.3B) and Canada ($5.1B), together comprising 35% of global exports. These countries were followed by the U.S., Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Belarus, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Israel, Oman and Algeria, which together accounted for a further 38%. The shipments of the three major exporters of fertilizers, namely Russia, China and Canada, represented more than a third of total export in physical terms. 

Top Largest Importers Worldwide

Brazil (34M tonnes), India (25M tonnes), and the U.S. (23M tonnes) represented roughly 37% of total imports of fertilizers in 2020. It was distantly followed by China (10M tonnes), generating a 4.8% share of total imports. France (7.4M tonnes), Indonesia (6.2M tonnes), Australia (5.2M tonnes), Thailand (5M tonnes), Canada (4.4M tonnes), Turkey (4.3M tonnes), Germany (4.1M tonnes), Argentina (4M tonnes) and Belgium (3.9M tonnes) held small shares of total imports.

In value terms, the largest fertilizer importing markets worldwide were Brazil ($8.6B), India ($7.1B) and the U.S. ($5.6B), together accounting for 36% of global imports. These countries were followed by China, France, Australia, Thailand, Canada, Indonesia, Argentina, Turkey, Germany and Belgium, which together accounted for a further 24%. 

About IndexBox

IndexBox is a market research firm developing an AI-driven market intelligence platform that helps business analysts find actionable insights and make data-driven decisions. The platform provides data on consumption, production, trade, and prices for more than 10K+ different products across 200 countries.

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Companies Mentioned in the Report

Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Yara, K+S, Uralkali, EuroChem, Safco, BASF, Israel Chemicals, Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Agrium, CSBP, Acron Group, PhosAgro, American Trona Corporation Building, IMC Global, Intrepid Potash, Terra Nitrogen Company, Trammo, China Blue Chemical, Qinghai Salt Lake Potash, Sinofert, Chambal Fertilisers, Coromandel International, Deepak Fertilisers and Petrochemicals, Fertilizer Corporation of India, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilisers & Chemicals, National Fertilizers


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